Ranking the 2018 World Cup Teams by Likability from 32-1

The 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia is now upon us, and if you haven’t heard yet (at this point, everyone who’s shown the least bit of interest in soccer knows by now), the United States will not be participating in this iteration of the world’s biggest sports tournament.

Eight months have passed since that fateful night in Couva where the United States men’s national team lost 2-1 to Trinidad and Tobago in the final qualifying round, and in that time, I’ve come to grips regarding the team’s fate. Despite this World Cup bringing about a drastically different viewing experience for the first time in my life, I have decided not to let the USMNT’s absence ruin my enjoyment of the event.

Thankfully, we’re not alone in terms of missing out on the tournament. Italy, the Netherlands, Chile, Ghana, and Ivory Coast are among the other notable countries that failed to qualify for Russia 2018. In fact, if you can remember Group E from 2006 (Italy, Ghana, Czech Republic, United States), that entire group, perceived to be by some as a “group of death,” is nowhere to be found this year. (I had originally thought this was the most recent group to be entirely absent from this World Cup, but the insultingly easy group Italy was given in 2010 of Paraguay, Slovakia, and New Zealand [which, believe it or not, Italy wound up finishing dead last in] will also not feature this year.) Some have even joked (and seriously proposed) about an NIT-style “loser’s tournament” for a number of teams that failed to qualify this year.

Regardless of who’s in this tournament (and who didn’t make it), I will still make this interesting after having ranked all 32 teams in order of my rooting interest. I have based this on a combination of which countries have players I like, which have players I don’t like, which have players either on or formerly on my favorite teams, and other various non-soccer factors, admittedly by various consistency. A common way many Americans (and other neutrals) partake in the World Cup is to support their ancestral country whenever their own country has been eliminated, but as someone whose own exact nation of ancestry is unknown, I have taken these measures to keep my interest up. Your rooting interests may be different, though.

With that said, here’s how I’ve ranked each of the 32 teams in this year’s World Cup.

32.) PORTUGAL
I can’t stand Portugal. At all. While I’m not too fond of Cristiano Ronaldo, I do respect his talent. But he’s not the reason I have them all the way down here, and he’s not the only unlikeable (to some) player on the team. If you can believe it, Pepe, who has a reputation of being one of the dirtiest footballers in the world, is still playing for Portugal even at 35. (Amazingly, he hadn’t even been called up to the senior national team in 2006, when this melee disguised as a football match occurred in that year’s World Cup [though the Dutch team arguably bears more responsibility for how that match went sideways]).

It’s also not only because they just so happened to be the defending Euro champions. It’s more because of how they won the Euros two years ago. That year, the Euros had expanded from 16 to 24 teams, all funneling into a round of 16 after the group stages. Portugal finished 3rd in its group after getting draws in all three games. Under the old format, they’d have been eliminated. But they ranked among the best third-placed teams in the tournament, so they went through to the Round of 16. They then proceeded to win four straight from there to take home the title, with three of those games having been decided in either extra time or penalty kicks (including the final). And I’m also still not over the USMNT dropping points against them in the last minutes four years ago. F*ck them.

31.) RUSSIA
I will admit that a lot of the sentiment of having Russia near the bottom of this ladder has very little to do with football or sports in general, and I’ll leave it at that. Although if you want to talk about Russia’s well-documented history of doping in international sports, you could say that too.

wtfcroatia

So much for “heritage, not hate.”

T-29.) CROATIA, SERBIA
This one also has more to do with outside factors than the players themselves. Both sets of fans tend to seem to want to cause trouble at any cost. In a game that I had been watching last year, a Croatian club’s fans got rather violent in the middle of a match. And, well, I can’t ignore the history of racist chants and banners, either. I mean, Confederate flags? Seriously? Yeah. It’s a shame, because I kind of like the red-and-white checkered shirts.

28.) GERMANY
Nothing against the players or fans, but I just tend to root against teams that win the previous World Cup.

27.) URUGUAY
Does Luis Suarez still play for Uruguay? Yes? OK then.

26.) SPAIN
They’ve also won World Cups and Euros rather recently, and they also have an unlikeable player in Sergio Ramos. Despite my support for Real Madrid defeating Liverpool in last month’s Champions League final, Ramos concussing Liverpool’s goalkeeper and injuring Mohamed Salah really made me feel dirty for having supported them in that game (although to be honest, this was a matter of the lesser of two evils as an Everton fan). Heck, you can find Ramos’ track record right here.

T-24.) IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA
I don’t know much about the footballing nature of either country, but both tend to have problematic ways they go about things outside of sports.

23.) POLAND
I don’t know. Something just seems a little unsettling about a bunch of White guys wearing an eagle emblem on their chest. Or maybe I’m being a bit too harsh on them.

22.) PANAMA
Normally, I support all non-Mexico CONCACAF countries in the World Cup or in other international competitions, but after knowing that Panama knocked the U.S. out of the World Cup by scoring a goal that fails to meet any of the criteria that a goal requires, the most important of which is actually getting the ball to cross the goal line inside the net, I can’t get with them this time. It’s like Don Denkinger, Brett Hull’s skate in the crease, and the Fail Mary all rolled into one. Yeah, you could say again that the USMNT could have avoided this by not losing to Trinidad and Tobago, but this isn’t the place for rationality, damnit!

T-20.) DENMARK, SOUTH KOREA
Both of these teams are interchangeable. Both have players I recognize from the Premier League (namely, from Spurs). Meh.

19.) ARGENTINA
You’re going to hear about Lionel Messi’s lack of international honors and about how this could be his last best chance to get one at the World Cup or maybe at the next Copa America, despite being one of the two best players in the world. (Argentina also barely avoided joining the mythical World Cup NIT this qualifying phase as well.) You won’t hear much about how he doesn’t seem to like to pay his taxes. Or that he momentarily quit the Argentina team after they lost the Copa America final in 2016 to Chile in a penalty shootout (a penalty shootout in which Messi missed his own kick). Not to mention, Argentina is effectively a Spanish-speaking Italy, so they get penalized there.

18.) TUNISIA
They do have a badass nickname (The Eagles of Carthage). That’s just about it, though.

17.) SWITZERLAND
Switzerland does virtually nothing emotionally for me, whether positive or negative. Fittingly, knowing Switzerland’s reputation in the world, they go right in the middle (or they would go there if there were an odd number of teams in the World Cup). But this is close enough.

16.) SWEDEN
The post-Ibrahimovic Sweden also doesn’t do much for me either. But at least they knocked out Italy, so I guess they get a bump up?

15.) MEXICO
I normally don’t support Mexico’s in international competitions, but part of me kind of wants to see them go deeper than usual in the World Cup just to see how people react. I know I’m going to get sh*t from American fans for even thinking about supporting Mexico. Oh, and no era penal de hace 4 años. (Gee, the more I think about it, the more I’m glad the Netherlands missed out on the World Cup. Between Robben’s dive, the Battle of Nuremberg, Johnny Heitinga in the 2010 final, they needed to be kicked in the shins.)

14.) ENGLAND
There are definitely worse teams in this World Cup to get behind. It also helps to be familiar with pretty much all of these players from watching the Premier League. But of course, when all of the players you see on this team are from one league, you have to put up with players from rival teams as well. If Jordan Pickford is chosen as their starting goalkeeper, they get more points from me.

13.) BRAZIL
Can you believe that it’s already been 16 years since Brazil last lifted the World Cup trophy? Can you believe that despite them having won the most World Cups in the history of the competition, this 16 year drought isn’t the longest in the country’s history (that would be 24 between 1970 and 1994, with five consecutive non-wins in between, unless you want to count the 28 years it took from the first World Cup in 1930 to their first victory in 1958)? After seeing that 7-1 annihilation against Germany four years ago in an awe-inspiring performance that I didn’t even know anyone was capable of doing at this level of the game (especially to that team in that country), part of me also kind of felt sorry for Brazil in that moment (although Neymar was kneed in the back in the previous game and couldn’t play and their captain Thiago Silva couldn’t either due to getting two yellow cards earlier in the tournament). But then I remembered that they’ve already won enough World Cups for several lifetimes, so my sympathy stopped there.

12.) JAPAN
All I really have to say here is that for most of my life, Nintendo had been my choice of video gaming entertainment. I may now have gotten the last few Xboxes and no Nintendo systems since the first Wii, but there’s still that special place in my heart. So there.

11.) ICELAND
Ah, it’s the feel-good story of Euro 2016. The island nation with the population of Santa Ana, California that got to the quarterfinals with their coach who was a part-time dentist and their Viking clap gained a lot of neutral support and will continue to get some for this tournament. Gylfi Sigurdsson, arguably their most prominent player, is back in action after suffering an injury during the season. Gone are the days where I would make some Mighty Ducks reference with regard to an Icelandic sports team and move on.

10.) MOROCCO
The only thing that I know about Morocco from a footballing standpoint is that Marouane Fellaini (more on him later) is of Moroccan descent, even though he doesn’t play for Morocco. And I’ve heard good things about them as a potential dark horse. Also, how about Morocco Mole from the Secret Squirrel cartoons? Any of you post-millennials reading this won’t get that one.

9.) PERU

Peru-WorldCupJersey

Hooray fútbol!

It’ll be the first time Peru’s made the World Cup since I’ve been alive, after always having struggled to get out of the meat grinder that is CONMEBOL qualifying. They have one of the best jerseys in the competition even though they look more like an endorsement of Red Stripe beer. And now they’re another potential dark horse with Paolo Guerrero returning to the team after Peru’s version of a literal teapot scandal of some sort.

8.) FRANCE
I’ve been using the France national team pretty consistently in FIFA and getting results. I always look forward to Antoine Griezmann goals just to see how he’s going to celebrate. And their World Cup win 20 years ago was a figurative punch in the face to all the racists out there.

7.) COSTA RICA
As I’ve said before, I normally support other CONCACAF teams in the World Cup, and other than the exception of Panama as mentioned earlier, this will hold true there. Costa Rica making it out of one of the groups of death four years ago and getting to the quarterfinals as the last CONCACAF team alive made an impression on me. Sadly they had to lose to the Netherlands on penalty kicks, but oh well.

Marouane-Fellaini-839645

Fellaini should never have to suffer another head wound, just so we’ll be spared from seeing this monstrosity again.

6.) BELGIUM
If a bunch of former Evertonians (including the aforementioned Fellaini and his legendary hair) didn’t already have ties to Belgium national team, this would be a lot lower due to everyone having them as a trendy pick. I mean, I agree that they could do damage, and I’m still fond of Romelu Lukaku even though he emphatically celebrated his goal against Everton, his former team. And despite Roberto Martinez setting Everton back a few years with his managerial style, I can’t help but like his approach to the game. Just as long as it’s not threatening my teams with relegation, though.

5.) AUSTRALIA
This boils down to one man and one man only: Tim Cahill. He’s 38 now, but he still has a chance to score in four different World Cups.

4.) COLOMBIA
As someone who’s still striving towards being able to comfortably speak Spanish, this will be the highest Spanish-speaking country in my rankings. Let’s also not forget that Colombia was also screwed out of a goal against Brazil in the same game that Neymar was hurt. I’ve got Colombia on my short-but-slightly-longer-than-short list of places I’d like to visit as well.

3.) EGYPT
Of course, I’m rooting for the rest of the African teams in this World Cup, in case you haven’t noticed by now. I also figure that Salah will be the reason Egypt gets a lot of neutral support this time around, and for good reason. Despite the fact that he plays for Liverpool, he’s been a joy to watch. Whether he’s able to play, unfortunately, is another question, mainly due to the aforementioned injury he suffered at the hands of Ramos in that Champions League final.

nigeriaworldcupkit2

This shirt reminds me of old video game waterfalls.

2.) NIGERIA
Whether Nigeria can get past the round of 16 is one question, but what’s assured is that they’ve always subscribed to the notion of “look good, feel good. Feel good, play good.” Both on and off the field. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be any Everton connections to this Nigeria team now that Yakubu and Joseph Yobo have long since been out of the picture, so that’s why they come up second here. But if one green-clad team called the Eagles could get over the hump in another type of football, who knows?

1.) SENEGAL
Not only do they have a current Everton player in Idrissa Gueye, but they could actually do some damage in what’s perceived to be a winnable (or at least advanceable) group. Oh, and let’s reminisce on the time Senegal shocked then-defending champions France to open the 2002 World Cup.

 

There you have it. The USMNT might have given us lemons in October, but we can still make lemonade from an entertainment and storyline standpoint out at the World Cup this year. Or you can just pretend that this tournament is one big United Nations meeting with all sorts of metaphorical posturing and muscle-flexing. After the news that came out this week, at least I won’t have to make this kind of post eight years from now. We’ll just have to see how much progress US Soccer has made for these next four, though.

Advertisements

It Wasn’t a Championship, but the Caps’ Win Monday was Still a Pretty Big Deal

The Washington Capitals have finally done it.

After several years of trying and failing, they’ve finally conquered what seemed to be an insurmountable roadblock. In the words of play-by-play announcer John Walton, “the demons have been exorcised!”

With their 2-1 overtime victory against the Pittsburgh Penguins Monday night, not only have they beaten the Penguins in a playoff series for the first time since 1994 in their eighth postseason meeting since, not only have they reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since Alex Ovechkin joined the team in 2005, but they were also the first major D.C. professional sports team to reach the final four round of the playoffs since 1998, which had been the second-longest such drought of any major professional sports city in the United States (only Cincinnati has gone longer without a Conference Final or League Championship Series). When you consider that this city has had four major pro sports teams for all but six of those years and had combined for 72 team seasons without reaching that round of the playoffs, the most of any city in North America, the significance of last night’s win looms larger.

I know what some of you are probably thinking: if the Caps get swept in the next round, what was this all for? They don’t give Stanley Cups–or even Prince of Wales Trophies–for just reaching the conference finals. And in a way, you’d be right. The Caps have only gotten halfway to their goal. The players themselves would tell you as such.

But for D.C. sports fans, this is bigger. The team that has come to epitomize this city’s reputation as a city of chokers has gotten the proverbial 800-pound gorilla off its back. I’ve discussed this whole issue at length before. At very great length, in fact. With every successive playoff failure from perceived championship favorites like the Capitals and the Nationals of MLB–each Petr Nedved quadruple overtime dagger, blown 3-1 series lead, upset at the hands of several otherworldly performances from Jaroslav Halak, blowout in a Game 7 at home, blown six-run lead in a winner-take-all game, failure to record the final strike to advance to the next round on two separate occasions, uncalled case of batter’s interference, and overturned call on a slow-motion replay technicality–a sense of playoff malaise, of fan apathy, had started to set in to the minds of many fans. Whenever the performance of the Capitals came up in conversation, one of my coworkers would offer this common refrain: “nothing they do matters until the playoffs.”

As a result, fans become conditioned to expect the worst and never let their guards down, making it very difficult to just “enjoy the ride” rather than fixate on the ultimate destination. When the Capitals dropped the first two games of their first round series at home against Columbus after blowing multiple leads in both games, I would forgive anyone thinking “not again!” Even with analysts lowering their expectations of the team this season due to offseason departures, it’s hard to blame D.C. fans to revert to panic mode when another lower-seeded team threatens to eliminate the Caps from the playoffs.

But somehow, this team got off the canvas and reeled off four straight, including two overtime victories, to take the series. And then to not only get past the second round, but to beat the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins, of all teams? Forgive the fans for feeling any emotion between relief and elation.

A win like this has the potential to be a complete game-changer, not only for the Capitals, but for the entire city of Washington, D.C. Fans suddenly have a reason to feel optimistic and energized about their teams in the playoffs and will actually want to make it to Capital One Arena and show their support. Game 3 of this upcoming series against Tampa Bay will be the most anticipated home game in almost 20 years for this city regardless of who wins the first two games. And, fair or not, no one will have a good reason to project the same pessimism of the failures of the Capitals in the playoffs onto either of the other local teams anymore. No longer will fans hold back their support for their teams out of fear of disappointment. The pressure is finally off.

While no hard evidence exists of this phenomenon, it’s hard for me to imagine that the Boston Red Sox winning the 2004 World Series did not carry over and also help them win the Series in 2007 and 2013. That the team no longer had the franchise’s failures of the past projected onto them by their fans in every critical situation, and thus did not have to hear or think about the Curse of the Bambino over and over again, had to allow them to perform more relaxed than they likely would’ve otherwise (in fact, ever since then, their fans will always be the first to remind everyone of their teams’ success–to the consternation of anyone within earshot). With that said, it will be interesting to see if a similar carryover effect occurs with the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Eagles, or the Cleveland Cavaliers (and by extension, the rest of the city of Cleveland) after each of their recent championships.

Once again, the Capitals still have work to do starting in Game 1 against the Lightning, and they won’t be hanging any banners at 7th and F for losing in a conference final (and if they do decide to hang one, the franchise will deserve any and all mockery that goes in their direction). But that doesn’t mean that the team didn’t make a huge stride in the right direction not just for themselves, but for an entire generation of sports fans in this city. Celebrate now, but push the team on even further beginning Friday night.


Colin Kaepernick and the Dilemma of Socially-Conscious Black Athletes

AP 49ERS KAEPERNICK FOOTBALL S FBN FILE USA CA

As you’ve probably heard by now, last Friday, San Francisco 49ers quarterback (as of this writing) Colin Kaepernick made headlines when he refused to stand up for the national anthem prior to a preseason game.   According to Kaepernick, he acted in protest of “a flag for a country that oppresses Black people and people of color.”

His actions may as well have been manna from heaven to bloggers (perhaps myself included?), program directors of sports talk radio stations across the country, or anyone who has anything to gain from someone who has an opinion on the matter, and certainly, there isn’t a dearth of opinion on this matter.

Of these opinions, I’ve heard a rather common refrain from talking heads on TV and the radio, callers, and tweeters, and that was that while Kaepernick had the right not to stand for the Star-Spangled Banner, he shouldn’t have made his point in that specific fashion.  Other opinions were more extreme, to varying degrees.

Maybe you should be more worried about losing your job to Blaine Gabbert than protesting police brutality.

You’re rich, so what do you know about oppression?

That flag and that anthem represents those that died for our freedom, so you shouldn’t disrespect that.

If you don’t like it here, you’re free to leave the country.

In other words, “shut up and play.”

With the events Friday night, Kaepernick adds his name to a list of Black athletes who have spoken up about controversial social issues.  We won’t know the long-term effects of his stance for possibly months with regards to his playing career, but considering that he had lost his job as starting quarterback last year and could fail to make San Francisco’s opening day roster this year, he could possibly jeopardize his career.  His responses to questions from the media on Sunday seem to indicate that he is prepared for any and all potential backlash from sponsors to NFL general managers to fellow players.

Peter King of Sports Illustrated wrote a piece about the issue, and it included a two-question Twitter poll: whether Kaepernick should have the right to sit during the anthem, and whether he was right in doing so.  After two hours and thousands of responses, the first question’s results were 51-49% in favor of “yes,” and the second question came back “no” by a 66-34% margin.  The specifics of the second question aren’t known, perhaps due to the technical limitations of Twitter, because it could be construed as “is Kaepernick right that people of color are oppressed in this country?” or “is Kaepernick right to use the national anthem as his means of protest?”, and both questions can have distinctly different answers.  I could go on about Kaepernick’s main point about the oppression of minorities in society, but I would run the risk of going too far off topic for this blog, so I will focus on how this relates to how we view athletes who do speak out.

The most common theme I’ve heard in response to Kaepernick’s protest is that he should have used another method to make his point, even if they agree that he should be allowed to protest.  This bothers me the most.  The point of a protest is to draw attention to a perceived grievance, and oftentimes, the protester may have to act in a manner that goes against conventional thinking.  Protests are supposed to make the target audience uncomfortable in some way; otherwise, they would simply be ignored, and demonstrating in a manner that’s easy to ignore defeats the purpose.

While the picture of Tommie Smith and John Carlos raising their black-gloved fists on the podium that night in the 1968 Summer Olympics is remembered as an iconic moment in the Civil Rights movement, the gesture drew boos during the anthem, got them banned from the rest of the Games that year, and subject them to death threats back home.  (Sidebar: Peter Norman, the other guy on the podium, supported Smith and Carlos, and he also protested discriminatory laws in his native Australia.  He arguably faced worse ostracism when he returned home due to his stances.)

When the Chicago Bulls visited the White House after winning the 1992 NBA Finals, shooting guard Craig Hodges wore a dashiki and gave a handwritten letter to President George H. W. Bush in protest of his administration’s treatment of minorities and the poor.  Not only was Hodges let go from the Bulls, but no other NBA team was willing to pick him up.  However, like Kaepernick, Hodges appeared to be on the decline during his final year in the NBA. His three-point field goal percentage had dropped to 37.5, his lowest since 1986-87, and because that was the only asset he brought to the team, the Bulls may have used that to justify cutting him regardless of political beliefs, just as the 49ers might do with Kaepernick.

Black professional athletes in this country have always faced a dilemma regarding their place in society.  Do they have a responsibility to use their platform to affect change in society?  Or should they try to maximize their earning potential by avoiding controversy at all costs?  Muhammad Ali and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar were among the most notable athletes in the former group; such athletes believed that they needed to use their fame and power to speak up for, and give back to, underserved Black communities, especially if said athletes lived in those communities. On the other hand, Michael Jordan (who was a frequent target of Hodges) and O.J. Simpson were perceived to be part of the latter group and were more concerned with building a brand palatable for mainstream America.  On one hand, one has to wonder to what degree should athletes take public stances on contentious issues without alienating teammates, team executives, and fans?  And how do athletes navigate a world that might assume them to be “dumb jocks” or “sellouts” unless proven otherwise, while making money playing “a kid’s game”?

Many consider the consumption of sports as an escape from the rigors of everyday life and as a common denominator of people across race, religion, and political affiliation, among other categories.  Thus, it only stands to reason that the introduction of sociopolitical issues into the sports arena would unnerve a good number of sports consumers.  In a country with a tenuous history of race relations such as this, any pro-Black political statement by an athlete, regardless of platform or reasons for said statement, may be construed as “rocking the boat,” as evidenced by the mostly-White reactions to the aforementioned protests.  Essentially, the method of protest really doesn’t matter.  For example, if Kaepernick had chosen to wear a shirt depicting his grievance instead of sitting down during the national anthem, the public probably would have reacted almost as similarly (though perhaps without the invocation of the military by his detractors), because by simply making this stance, he’s bringing the problems of the real world into this supposedly ideology-free zone instead of merely “shutting up and playing” or “sticking to sports.”

Many have long been trying to draw attention to the issues that Kaepernick raised last weekend, but it usually takes a prominent figure with the money and the platform that he has to get others to continue paying attention to them.  This also invalidates the argument that claims that Kaepernick’s salary automatically disqualifies him to speak out against oppression, since not only did he mention that this issue was much bigger than himself, but the large salaries of Black athletes do not automatically buy them protection from discrimination (just ask Thabo Sefolosha and James Blake about that).

The Colin Kaepernick situation has proven once again that mainstream America is only comfortable with Black athletes when they either excel on the playing field, deliberately downplay their heritage, or, in the case of figures like Ali or Jackie Robinson, if enough time has passed and their complicated legacies are reduced to just a handful of moments that look benign in retrospect.  Remaining seated during the national anthem, however, will probably still be taboo a generation from now, and while we don’t exactly know the endgame for what Kaepernick did, he at least got the ball rolling by taking an action that made people notice and think critically about how we do things here, which–once again–is the main point of a protest in the first place.

Now it’s time to take the next step and address the concerns at hand.


The Levels of Losing, DC Sports Edition (Part 4 of 4)

After another playoff disappointment from the Washington Capitals, I’ve started to explore some of the biggest losses in Washington, DC sports since 1992, the year a DC team last won a title in any of the big four professional sports leagues using Bill Simmons’ “Levels of Losing 2.0” standard.  For Levels 16 through 5, see Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

And down the stretch we come…

LEVEL 4: THE GUILLOTINE

This one combines the devastation of The Broken Axle Game with sweeping bitterness and hostility. … Your team’s hanging tough (hell, they might even be winning), but you can feel the inevitable breakdown coming, and you keep waiting for the guillotine to drop, and you just know it’s coming — you know it — and when it finally comes, you’re angry that it happened and you’re angry at yourself for contributing to the debilitating karma. … These are the games when people end up whipping their remote controls against a wall or breaking their hands while pounding a coffee table. … Too many of these and you’ll end up in prison.

Here’s another level in which I’ll have to include two games, each from different sports.

Case 1: Seattle 24, Washington 14 (2012-13 NFC Wild Card Round)

Highlights

rg-3-knee-4_3

DC buzzed with excitement when it was announced that the Rams traded the 2nd overall pick in the 2012 draft to the Redskins with the expectation that the team would take Robert Griffin III. It was thought that they would finally have the franchise quarterback they’d been looking for. It also seemed like no sooner than the trade was announced, independent clothing designers were already working on churning out RG3 hats, shirts, and anything else his likeness could go on.

And his first year here lived up to the hype and more. Griffin won Offensive Rookie of the Year that year, and he led the team to a 10-6 record and its first NFC East title since 1999.

In the Wild Card game against Seattle, Washington cruised in its first two possessions to two touchdowns, but late on that second drive, Griffin rolled to his right and attempted a pass as he was hit out of bounds.  He got up and returned to the huddle with a much more pronounced limp than before, favoring his right knee, which already had a bulky brace draped over it.  Clearly, something wasn’t right.  After the touchdown, he was checked out by the team trainers and doctors.  Apparently, it wasn’t enough of a concern to pull him from the game.

Griffin had initially suffered his injury on the final drive in regulation in Week 14.  Kirk Cousins replaced him and tied the score with a touchdown pass and a two-point conversion run, and the ‘Skins would go on to win in overtime.   Cousins would also start and win the following game before RG3 returned the following week.  Even with Griffin playing well enough to lead the team to the playoffs, his knee was still a ticking time bomb.

Washington’s offense sputtered in the ensuing possessions.  Griffin’s biggest asset all season had been his mobility, and the knee brace and apparent aggravation of the injury all but sapped that away.  Not only that, but his accuracy suffered now that he couldn’t properly plant his back leg to throw.  After gaining 129 yards on their first two possessions, the offense gained just 74 yards for the rest of the game against Seattle’s vaunted defense.  As a result, all Washington’s defense could do is to merely try to hang onto its lead for dear life, which they tried to do through the first three-and-a-half quarters before the Seahawks broke through with the go-ahead touchdown.

The guillotine would finally drop on the ensuing drive.  Griffin reached to try to pick up a bad shotgun snap from Will Montgomery, and his right knee finally gave out, turning inwards as if he were trying to do the Stanky Legg, and he crumbled to the ground.  FedExField fell silent as the future of the franchise flashed before everyone’s eyes.  Seattle would put the game away with a field goal.  The diagnosis?  Torn ACL and LCL.  (Coincidentally, it’s the same knee that he had suffered a torn ACL in at Baylor in 2009.)  For the next several months after the game, the offseason drama of who was at fault for leaving Griffin on the field while visibly injured, as well as the speculation of whether he would be ready for the following season, raged on, and RG3’s career would never be the same in Washington again.

Case 2: New York Rangers 3, Washington 2 (2012 NHL Eastern Conference Semifinals, Game 5)

Yep, you guessed it, another hockey example.  Just comes to illustrate the state of the Capitals and DC sports in general when Caps games comprise of many of these in the countdown.

With the series tied 2-2, this was a critical game in the series, and a Caps’ victory would have given them much-needed confidence to close out the series on home ice.

Washington took the lead early on in the 3rd period and despite being outshot the whole game, it looked like they were about to hold on and steal one on the road as the game clock inched towards 0:00 and the Rangers emptied their net.  With 28.9 seconds left, Joel Ward, who had scored the series-winning goal in overtime against Boston the previous round (and, in turn, turned Twitter into Stormfront for a short while), whacks Carl Hagelin in the face with his stick right after the faceoff and takes a four-minute double-minor penalty after Hagelin was bleeding from the hit.  The 21.3 seconds from victory now seem like an eternity with Washington trying to stave off a 6-on-4 situation.  But the Rangers win the draw, keep the puck in their offensive zone, shoot it on net, and Mike Richards gets the rebound and scores the game-tying goal with 6.6 secconds left.  Wow.

And because the goal was scored within the first two minutes of the double-minor, Ward still had to serve the last two minutes in the ensuing overtime session.  The Rangers get another offensive zone faceoff with the man advantage, and Marc Staal shoots it from the right point.  The puck deflects off the stick of Brooks Laich and past Holtby for the game-winner.

LEVEL 3: THE STOMACH PUNCH

Now we’ve moved into rarefied territory, any roller-coaster game that ends with (A) an opponent making a pivotal (sometimes improbable) play or (B) one of your guys failing in the clutch. … Usually ends with fans filing out after the game in stunned disbelief, if they can even move at all. … Always haunting, sometimes scarring. … There are degrees to The Stomach Punch Game, depending on the situation. … For instance, it’s hard to top Cleveland’s Earnest Byner fumbling against Denver when he was about two yards and 0.2 seconds away from sending the Browns to the Super Bowl.

Either of these two games by themselves could have qualified for this, but in my mind, they’ll forever be linked together for no other reason than the simultaneity of the games and for what was at stake for each team and for the DC sports fanbase as a whole.

Case 1: Atlanta 82, Washington 81 (2015 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 5)

Case 2: New York Rangers 2, Washington 1 (2015 NHL Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 7)

2015 was one of the most successful years for DC pro sports as a whole, with three teams qualifying for the playoffs.  While the Wizards and Capitals have popped into the playoffs here and there in the last few decades, it’s been rare for both teams to reach the playoffs in the same season.  The spring of 2015 was the second time since 1988 that both teams reached the playoffs in the same season and the first since 2008.  The great thing about multiple teams in the playoffs?  If one team fails, you can hitch your wagon to the other team.  So one could imagine how euphoric (or relieved, for some) DC sports fans were feeling when both teams advanced to the second round for the first time ever after the Wizards swept Toronto and the Caps took out the Islanders in seven.

On the flip side, there’s also the chance of a double dose of disappointment, and if you’ve made it this far into this series, you probably know where I’m going with this.

May 13, 2015.  Both the Wizards and Capitals have critical playoff games ahead.  For the Caps, it’s a Game 7 at Madison Square Garden against the Rangers.  They led the series 3-1 before dropping Games 5 and 6 (sound familiar?).  Each game in the series had been decided by one goal, so to say that this series has been evenly matched is an understatement.  The Wizards are in Atlanta for a pivotal Game 5 against the Hawks.  With the series tied at 2-2, John Wall will return after a three-game absence due to a fracture in his left hand.  His presence would be needed.

7:45 p.m.: The puck drops at MSG on NBCSN.

8:03: Underway in Atlanta as the Wizards get the opening tip.  Game is on TNT.

8:09: Goal, Capitals.  Alex Ovechkin receives a pass in the slot from the left boards and beat Henrik Lundqvist glove-side with 7:10 to go in the 1st. 1-0 Washington.

8:18: The Caps lose possession of the puck on their power play late in the first, and Rick Nash is in the clear on a breakaway chance, but Holtby stands tall and makes the save.

8:23: First period ends in Manhattan.  Caps still lead 1-0 but will start the 2nd shorthanded.

8:27: The first quarter ends in Atlanta with the Hawks leading 23-19.

8:45: After the Caps fans’ whipping boy Mike Green gets exposed again on a penalty, Derick Brassard’s shot hits the post.  The Capitals would kill the penalty.

8:51: Within a minute of leaving the penalty box, Green goes brain dead again and commits another penalty, but this time, the Rangers make them pay.  They keep the puck in Washington’s zone, and J.T. Miller sends a perfect diagonal pass to Kevin Hayes at the left post to tap in and tie the game at 1-1.  Because of course Green would have a big hand in the opposing team’s playoff success.

8:53: Back in Atlanta, the Wizards take the lead on a Wall jumper, as his return to the game had jumpstarted the comeback effort.

9:00: Paul Pierce drains a three with 29 seconds left in the half to cap a 19-4 scoring run and stretch the lead to 47-39.  The Hawks would close the half with a bucket to cut the lead to six.

9:17: The horn sounds at the Garden and after a fruitless Capitals power play (and appeals from Caps fans for another penalty), the score is still tied at 1-1.

9:22: With the second half afoot in Atlanta, Nene hits a jumper to give the Wiz a 10-point lead, their largest thus far.

9:42: The Hawks battle all the way back and take a 61-58 lead with a 10-0 run with the Wiz missing eight consecutive shots.  The third quarter would end with the score 63-62 Atlanta.

9:44: Evgeny Kuznetsov nearly puts the Caps ahead but his backhand shot misses the net after beating Henrik Lundqvist.  Golden opportunity missed.

9:54: Bradley Beal gives the Wizards the lead again with the first points of the fourth quarter.

9:55: Brooks Orpik of the Capitals just crushes Dan Boyle with a big but clean hit (with Rangers fans disagreeing, obviously).  Boyle had to leave the game.

10:04: Beal would score again to give Washington a nine-point lead with 6:15 left, capping a 13-1 run in this strange game of dueling scoring runs and lack of scoring altogether.  The defense did its job as well, forcing four Atlanta turnovers and 10 straight missed shots.

10:16: You guessed it.  Another lead change in Atlanta amid concurrent scoring runs/droughts, despite both teams shooting poorly.  Al Horford hits a long two-pointer and the Hawks are ahead 74-73.  They’d go on a 14-0 scoring run with the Wiz missing seven in a row to make it 78-73.

10:17: Oh boy.  Game 7 of the Caps’ series will have to be decided in overtime after a period of few chances.  This confirms that this will be the second 7-game series in NHL history where every game is decided by one goal (the other? Caps-Bruins in 2012).  Nothing more exciting in sports than an overtime Game 7 in hockey, unless you’re a fan of one of the teams in the game, in which case there’s nothing more anxiety-inducing.  Even more so for the DC fans, as now they’re on the edge of their seats on two fronts.

10:27: Tie game in Atlanta! Wizards battle back to tie it with Marcin Gortat’s jump hook with 51.3 left.

10:32: After a defensive stop, Paul Pierce, who had been clutch his entire career (including when he “called ‘game'” on a game-winning shot at the buzzer in Game 3), has it poked away from him by Kyle Korver, leading to a 2-on-1 fastbreak with Horford and DeMarre Carroll playing hot potato with the ball until they get the basket, and Carroll finishes it to give the Hawks the lead with 14.9 left.

Meanwhile, the puck drops at MSG for the start of overtime.

10:35: …but Pierce would atone for the turnover on the next possession by draining a corner 3.  Wiz up 81-80.  8.3 on the clock.

10:36: Back in New York…Caps get the first real chance in overtime with a shot from Jay Beagle brushed aside by Lundqvist.

10:37: Quickly back to Atlanta.  On the ensuing Hawks possession, Dennis Schröder drives down the lane for the game-winning layup, but Wall swats it off the glass.  Nene looks like he’s in prime position to get the rebound, but he gets outmuscled by Horford who grabs the rebound and sticks in the dagger, giving the Hawks an 82-81 lead with 1.9 to go and the Wizards out of timeouts.  Wall’s halfcourt heave misses as time expires.  Gutted.

Up in New York at the same time, Holtby makes a save on Hagelin from the left circle.

10:47: the Caps ice the puck, and luckily it happens after the 10 minute mark of the overtime period, so the guys on the ice get a bit of a rest.

10:50: Rangers take the faceoff.  Dan Girardi’s shot saved.  Rebound to Derek Stepan.  Left circle.  Goal.  Game, set, season.  The fifth blown 3-1 series lead in Capitals history, the most of any team in the NHL.

Two gut-wrenching defeats in 13 minutes.  Now I know that Simmons used the term “Stomach Punch” to describe such a game, but this just feels like you’ve been kicked in the nuts with a steel-toe boot, and while you’re bent over belatedly protecting your manhood, that person wearing the boot kicks you in the shins and you just collapse to the ground in the fetal position.

LEVEL 2: THE GOOSE/MAVERICK TAILSPIN

Cruising happily through the baseball regular season, a potential playoff team suddenly and inexplicably goes into a tailspin, can’t bounce out of it and ends up crashing for the season. In “Top Gun,” the entire scene lasted for 30 seconds and we immediately moved to a couple of scenes in which Tom Cruise tried to make himself cry on camera but couldn’t quite pull it off. In sports, the Goose/Maverick Tailspin could last for two weeks, four weeks, maybe even two months, but as long as it’s happening, you feel like your entire world is collapsing. It’s like an ongoing Stomach Punch Game. And when it finally ends, you spend the rest of your life reliving it every time a TV network shows a montage of the worst collapses in sports history. Other than that, it’s no big deal.

Case: Washington Nationals, July 31-September 2015

bryce-harper-and-nationals-pitcher-jonathan-papelbon-got-into-an-ugly-brawl-in-the-dugout

The Nationals and the Mets were battling atop the National League East all season, and they had traded places atop the division seven times heading into August.  For the Nationals, Bryce Harper took the next step in his ascension to stardom, posting NL-highs in home runs (42) and on-base-plus-slugging (1.109), en route to winning the NL MVP award.

Big-money signing Max Scherzer had an impressive first season with the team.  Some of his best pitching came in June, when he followed up a one-hitter (with the only hit coming in the 7th inning) with his first career no-hitter (in which he was one out away from a perfect game but wound up hitting the 27th batter).

Although Drew Storen converted 29 of 31 save opportunities and had a 1.73 ERA, Washington made a splash at the trade deadline, acquiring All-Star closer and one-time World Series champion Jonathan Papelbon to become the new closer, while Storen would be demoted to the 8th inning setup role.  Papelbon only agreed to be traded on the condition that he would continue to close games, so Storen was moved, despite his regular season success that year.  It was speculated that the acquisition was made for the playoffs in mind, as Storen struggled as the closer on two occasions at that stage already.  After the Nats traded their former setup man Tyler Clippard away before the season, they wanted a reliable arm to hold the lead for their closer.

Washington also weathered numerous injuries to Denard Span, Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, and Stephen Strasburg, and as Zimmerman, Werth, and Rendon returned to the lineup, the Nats were expected to keep control of the division, or at the very least, stay in the hunt with the just-as-impressive New York Mets.

July 31, 2015.  Washington, leading the NL East by three games, travels to Queens to take on the Mets, who made some big moves before the trade deadline to help their offense, which at the time had been struggling, despite their elite pitching staff.  The Mets took the first game of the series 2-1 in 12 innings on a walk-off homer from Wilmer Flores.  The Nats led the second game of the series 2-1 heading into the bottom of the 7th inning, but Matt Williams decides to leave righty pitcher Joe Ross in the game to face Lucas Duda, a left-handed hitter who had already homered off him earlier in the game.  Lo and behold, Duda goes yard again and ties the score.  His turn would come around in the bottom of the 8th inning and, facing lefty Matt Thornton, delivers a double to deep left field to give the Mets a 3-2 lead that they would hold onto to win.

The Mets would complete the sweep on the back of a 5-run third inning against Jordan Zimmermann and pull even with the Nats atop the NL East.  The Nats came back home for a seven-game homestand to face Arizona and Colorado, two teams which at the time were sub-.500, and they went 3-4.  Two of those games against the Rockies involved Storen giving up the deciding hits.  The first was a grand slam from Carlos Gonzalez, and the second was a two-run single from DJ LeMahieu that broke a 4-4 tie in the 8th.  This was the beginning of a mini-slump for Storen, and it would be fair to wonder if his demotion due to the Papelbon trade hurt his confidence.  The Nats had slipped to 1.5 games behind the Mets in the process.

Washington would go on a 10-game west coast road trip, and dropped two out of three against the Los Angeles Dodgers, getting shut out by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.  Things did not improve for the Nationals, suffering a four-game sweep to San Francisco, but they did rebound by winning two out of three in Colorado.  But now, the deficit was four games.  Suddenly, the playoff contenders had fallen to .500, and would fall below that mark after a loss when they got back home.

September came around, and the Nationals had a chance to cut into the Mets’ lead, which had shrunk to 4 from as many as 6.5 games.  The teams were due to face off in a three-game series at Nationals Park, which the Mets swept due in large part to late-inning bullpen struggles.  The bullpen faltered egregiously in the second game, as the Nats lost a 7-1 lead in the 7th inning when the Mets rallied for six runs, all with two out in the inning.  Suddenly, Blake Treinen, Felipe Rivero, and Storen couldn’t throw strikes, and the strikes they did throw were punished, including a three-run double from Yoenis Cespedes that contributed to the comeback.  Kirk Nieuwenhuis delivered the deathblow in the 8th inning when he homered against Papelbon.

Late-inning struggles struck again in the series finale, as homers from Kelly Johnson and Cespedes turned the game in New York’s favor.  Another sweep.  Seven games back.

Frustrations had started to boil in the Washington clubhouse.  Storen’s season came to a premature end after breaking his thumb in anger.  The Nationals would go 7-6 in the ensuing games, with a sweep against Baltimore at the end of that 13-game stretch.  The Mets’ division lead had only grown to 7.5 games, but time had all but run out for the Nats to gain ground on the frontrunners, and they were too far out of the Wild Card hunt to be a factor in that race.

On September 26, it was official.  The Mets mathematically clinched the NL East.  But just one day later, when you thought it couldn’t have gotten any worse…

And somehow, Williams, who claimed to have been unaware of the Papelbon-Harper fight, allowed Papelbon to return to the mound the next inning.  At that point, it was clear that Williams had lost the clubhouse.  Cue the debates at the time about who was right and who was wrong in what wound up being the most infamous image of the 2015 team.

Williams would be fired at the end of the season.  Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post summed up the Nationals’ collapse in greater detail in Part 3 of his series “Destiny Denied: The rise and fall of the 2015 Nationals.”  Storen would be traded to Toronto in the offseason, and you can say his downfall all started at the end of…

LEVEL 1: “THAT GAME”

Game 6 of the 1986 World Series. … One of a kind. … Given the circumstances and the history involved here, maybe the most catastrophic sports loss of our lifetime.  The only game that actually combined The Guillotine and The Stomach Punch. No small feat. Let’s just hope we never travel down that road again.

While this one isn’t nearly as massive on scale as the ’86 World Series, this one may have been the most heartbreaking in recent memory for DC sports fans both for what it could have been, and how it all unfolded.

Case: St. Louis 9, Washington 7 (2012 NLDS Game 5)

werth-dugout

For a city whose true passion has been NFL football, it is somewhat strange that the most devastating loss since 1992 involved its newest major pro sports team.

It has only been 11 years since the Washington Nationals played its first game in RFK Stadium since relocating from Montreal and filling a baseball void that spanned 33 years in DC.  After years of futility resulting in multiple high draft picks, the Nats became big-time contenders quickly, and expectations rose rapidly.  It all started to come together in the 2012 season when they won the NL East for the first time and had the best record in baseball.

But at first, the Nats struggled against the defending World Series champion Cardinals in the NLDS, falling behind 2 games to 1 and were one game away from elimination, but Jayson Werth gave the Nats new life in the series when he turned around a Lance Lynn fastball and sent it flying into the St. Louis bullpen for a walk-off, game-winning, season-saving home run, as described by Charlie Slowes in a radio call immortalized in the introductory montage for the team’s radio broadcasts.

And then Game 5 came around, and Washington jumped out to a 6-0 lead after three innings.  Of course, the Cardinals would not go quietly.  After all, it was just the previous year when they overcame a 10.5 game deficit in the NL Wild Card standings (in what just so happened to be the last year that each league only had one Wild Card berth) to get into the playoffs on the final day of the season.  That year, they made it all the way to the World Series where they later survived being down to their last strike twice in Game 6 to tie the score, and they would win on David Freese’s walk-off home run (with Joe Buck channeling his late father on the play-by-play), forcing a Game 7, which they would also win.  Would Game 5 be déjà vu for the Cardinals?

Gio Gonzalez labored through five innings and had given up three runs, and four other relievers trudged through the next three, having given up two runs in total.  But all that mattered was that Drew Storen would have a chance to close out the series in the 9th inning with a 7-5 lead.  Storen, who had been the closer the previous year, had reclaimed the role after recovering from elbow surgery that caused him to miss the first half of the season.

Carlos Beltran led off the inning with a double.  Matt Holliday grounded out, and Allen Craig struck out swinging.  Storen then had Yadier Molina, the potential tying run, down to his last strike with a 2-2 count.  Storen failed to get Molina to chase a breaking pitch in the dirt, and he missed high on a fastball with the next pitch, walking Molina.  Freese, the hero of the previous year’s World Series, came to the plate, and like Molina, he suddenly found himself and his team one strike away from elimination with a 1-2 count.  On the next pitch, Storen nearly strikes him out with a pitch similar to the one he tried to get Molina to chase, but Freese checked his swing just in time to stay in the at-bat.  Freese also drew a walk after two pitches out of the zone to load the bases.

Daniel Descalso wasted no time with his at-bat, swinging on the first pitch and hitting a sharp ground ball to Ian Desmond, who dove to try to make a play on it, but it bounced off him and into shallow center field, allowing two runs to score and tying the game at 7-7.  After Descalso stole second, Pete Kozma followed with a go-ahead two-run single to give the Cardinals a 9-7 lead which they would hold onto in the bottom of the 9th to complete an improbable comeback and stun many of the 45,966 fans at Nationals Park that night.

There seems to be a feeling that Washington willingly underachieved that season, considering the controversial decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg as the Nationals closed in on the division title. Before the season, the organization decided that Strasburg, who underwent Tommy John surgery August 2010, would have his innings limited all season, regardless of how well the team was doing.  Uncertainty over Strasburg’s postseason status continued to loom over the organization all season and even into the playoffs, where an arm like his could have helped.  Sure, his replacement Ross Detwiler pitched well in his only playoff start, but who is to say that Strasburg on the postseason roster wouldn’t have trickled down through the rest of the rotation and into the bullpen, allowing Davey Johnson more flexibility in close and late game situations?  Considering how difficult it is to win the World Series even with what looks like a team that will compete for playoff spots for years to come (just ask the Atlanta Braves of the ’90s), the idea of unfulfilled promise with regards to the 2012 team will linger in the minds of DC sports fans for years, especially if the Nats fail to win it all with this core.

A 6-0 lead after three innings.

One strike away.  Twice.

You can’t get much more agonizing than that.

Such encapsulates the incredulousness and paranoia of getting too attached to successful teams that Washington, DC sports fans have come to adopt.  Even if these moments aren’t nationally known by a nickname beginning with the word “The,” or aren’t associated with a stereotypically working-class populace, they still leave die-hard sports fans here yearning for postseason success that almost every city its size may have already experienced in the last 24 years.


The Levels of Losing, DC Sports Edition (Part 3 of 4)

After another playoff disappointment from the Washington Capitals, I’ve started to explore some of the biggest losses in Washington, DC sports since 1992, the year a DC team last won a title in any of the big four professional sports leagues using Bill Simmons’ “Levels of Losing 2.0” standard.  Here are Part 1 and Part 2 for reference.

Let’s continue.

LEVEL 8: THE “THIS CAN’T BE HAPPENING”

The sibling of the Full-Fledged Butt-Kicking. … You’re supposed to win, you expect to win, the game is a mere formality. … Suddenly your team falls behind, your opponents are fired up, the clock is ticking and it dawns on you for the first time, “Oh, my God, this can’t be happening.”

Case: Washington vs. Montreal (2010 NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals)

This series may have had the biggest impact in shaping the pessimistic psyche of Caps fans today.  Even in this year’s series with Philadelphia, one couldn’t help but have flashbacks to the Montreal series when the Flyers won Games 4 and 5 behind stellar goaltending from Michal Neuvirth.  Here goes.

After the season that ended with the game right behind this in the countdown, the Capitals were primed to take the league by storm.  A franchise-record points total.  The President’s Trophy.  A franchise record for goals scored and standings points accumulated.  It was setting up for a long playoff run.

It even started out well against the Canadiens, too.  The Caps break their playoff overtime losing streak at home.  They knocked out Jaroslav Halak in Game 3 and owned Carey Price in Game 4, both in Montreal.  Then we find out that New Jersey was upset by Philadelphia, who had sneaked into the playoffs by winning a shootout on the final game of the season against the Rangers, so it looks like the stars are aligning for a long playoff run.

Then Halak comes back in Game 5, and the Habs jumped out in front 2-0 early.  No big deal; the Caps have come back from that already this series.  Alex Ovechkin scores early in the 2nd, and now you’d expect the Caps to take over and shut it down.  But Montreal was able to stave off Washington’s power plays, and Halak continued to play well in net, and the Habs win.  Oh well, they’ll just clinch in Montreal.

On to Game 6…Raucous Bell Centre crowd.  Caps are still outshooting Montreal, so maybe they’ll get a foothold and quiet the cr–great.  Two goals within two minutes of each other in the first period, including an inexcusable softie on the part of Semyon Varlamov.  OK.  They get a few power plays (including a 5-on-3), but nothing.  Second period, outshoot them 14-3.  Still nothing.  More great saves from Halak.  And with every big save, those crazy Canadiens fans’ cheers get louder and louder.  And then they make Washington pay for their ineptitude early in the third with a Maxim Lapierre goal to make it 3-0.  Then the Caps get a power play and Halak displays Exhibit A of a hot goalie standing on his head in the playoffs, scrambling in his crease to make save after save.  Eric Fehr does break through in the 3rd, but it’s not enough.  Halak would go on to make 53 saves.  Montreal would score an empty-netter, and you could see that the underdogs and their fans believed they could pull off the upset.  Another case where “Dead Man Walking” would apply for pessimists.

Game 7.  Back in DC.  More of the same pressure on the Montreal net early on, but without the early deficit.  At least not until some cruel poetic justice was served.  Montreal converted on a 4-on-3 power play (thanks to who else but Mike Green, quite possibly the worst defenseman on the team, who also committed five other penalties that series) with just seconds to go in the 1st period to go ahead 1-0 on their sixth power play goal of the series.  The best power play in the regular season had been silenced since after Game 4, and Montreal was taking advantage of its scant chances.  Now the unthinkable was starting creep in the minds of Caps fans.  Did they win all of those games in the regular season for nothing?  Were they frauds that amassed 121 points on the backs of the “Southleast Division?”

Early in the 3rd, it looked like Washington had broken through.  Ovechkin wristed one from the left circle past Halak, but it was immediately and controversially waved off for goalie interference because Mike Knuble was apparently impeding Halak’s ability to play his position, even though the contact was minimal and incidental at most.  Now we’re getting into dangerous territory.

A similar situation happened on the other end as Montreal looked like they had opened up a two-goal lead.  Lapierre crashed the net after Varlamov made a save and tried to cover up, but the whistle had blown just as the puck trickled across the goal line while Varlamov was being pushed into by both Lapierre and Joe Corvo of Washington.  After review, the referee cited goalie interference for disallowing the goal.  So maybe the Caps had one go their way.  As the third period marched on, Montreal retreated into a shell, content on defending what they had.  One clearance from Hal Gill (one of their many gritty defensemen who, like Halak, stepped their game up in Games 5-7) was what decided it all.  Green (yes, the same Green that took the penalty leading to Montreal’s first goal and the same Green who has proven useless in clutch situations) tried to retrieve the puck and check an oncoming Lapierre at the same time, but he could only do one of those, and with John Carlson nowhere to be found to clean up the mess, Dominic Moore took the puck unimpeded and threw the dagger past Varlamov.  Cue the celebration shots from the Canadiens bench, shots of a despondent Bruce Boudreau and Ted Leonsis, shots of catatonic Caps fans wondering, “what in the wide world of f**k is happening to my hockey team?” and the token shots of what might’ve been the only two Habs fans in the house that night, overjoyed and taking it all in.

Laich would tally on a rebound roughly a minute later to give the fans some hope, and the Caps would continue to press on and even get a last-ditch power play and go 6-on-4 for the last 1:44, but they could hardly establish themselves in the Montreal zone.  With every clearance down the ice and towards the empty net (and, due to the Canadiens being shorthanded, they could ice the puck without consequence), the same thoughts were going through the heads of Capitals fans.

This isn’t happening.  This can’t be happening.

But it happened.

Another blown 3-1 series lead happened.

1-for-33 on the power play happened.

Jaroslav Halak putting up the performance of his life happened.

The President’s Trophy winner being cut down by an 8-seed happened.

It all happened.

LEVEL 7: THE DRIVE-BY SHOOTING

A first cousin of The “This Can’t Be Happening” Game, we created this one four weeks ago to describe any college football upset in which a 30-point underdog shocks a top-5 team in front of 108,000 of its fans and kills its title hopes before Labor Day. Just for the record, the “Drive-By Shooting” can only happen in college football.

Okay, so I lied.  I’ll throw a bone to college football right now but only in passing, because believe it or not, there is a somewhat local example, since there are several fans in the DC area.

Virginia Tech’s loss to James Madison in 2010 was just the second time since the NCAA split its top division into two subdivisions in 1978 that a team from the Football Championship Subdivision (formerly I-AA) defeated a ranked team from the Football Bowl Subdivision (formerly I-A).  The first, of course, was the Appalachian State-Michigan game alluded to in the description.  While the Hokies had an outside chance at competing for a national title, they had already lost to Boise State the previous weekend, and getting back into the title race would have been difficult.  But this loss virtually killed those chances, although Tech would win the rest of its regular season games en route to another ACC title and a BCS bowl.  But it’s still a bit of a stretch to call a university almost 200 miles away from the farthest part of Northern Virginia to still be considered part of the DC metropolitan area a DC sports team, so I’ll pass.  Plus, this isn’t a big college football city, and many who care about college football all usually have different schools they support.  Notice how on this map, neither Maryland nor Virginia Tech (the two most popular schools in the region) have any ZIP code with a majority of fans in the DC area, outside of Maryland’s College Park campus and the area surrounding it.

LEVEL 6: THE BROKEN AXLE

When the wheels come flying off in a big game, leading to a complete collapse down the stretch. … This one works best for basketball, like Game 3 of the Celtics-Nets series in 2002, or Game 7 of the Blazers-Lakers series in 2000. … You know when it’s happening because (A) the home crowd pushes their team to another level, and (B) the team that’s collapsing becomes afflicted with Deer-In-The-Headlitis. … It’s always fascinating to see how teams bounce back from The Broken Axle Game. … By the way, nobody has been involved in more Broken Axle Games than Rick Adelman.

There weren’t many of these kinds of losses as described here (and the Wizards have not been relevant enough to have that many big games, so this won’t be about basketball), but I’ll try to put my own spin on this.  I’m not sure if the Cowboys’ comeback from 21 points down in the 1999 opener capped by Troy Aikman hitting Rocket Ismail in overtime counts as a “big game,” even though it fits the bill otherwise, so I decided to pass on that.  I did, however, add two examples, including one from the 1999 season.

Case 1: Detroit 5, Washington 4 (1998 Stanley Cup Final Game 2)

As pointed out in the beginning of this post, this was still the last time that a DC sports team had made the championship round of any of the major sports, and it had been the only time this has happened since 1992.

While the Capitals didn’t have the high-flying offensive machines that they would be known for in the Ovechkin years, this was still a great team with an elite goalscorer in Peter Bondra and veterans Adam Oates, Joe Juneau and Dale Hunter putting up solid seasons.  Kolzig, or “Olie the Goalie” as he was known, ranked among the top goaltenders in hockey that year.  Veteran winger Esa Tikkanen was acquired from Florida mid-season and provided a much-needed boost to the team.

Washington took out Boston, Ottawa, and Buffalo in the Eastern Conference half of the playoffs, setting up a Stanley Cup final with the Red Wings, who were looking to defend their title. After the Caps dropped Game 1, they opened up a 4-2 lead in the third period of Game 2 when Juneau, who scored the series-winning goal against Buffalo in overtime in the previous round, put one past Chris Osgood.  Midway through the period, Martin Lapointe scored to reduce the lead to 4-3.  Shortly after, Washington had a chance to take full control of the game and potentially change the series when Tikkanen intercepts a pass, skates in on Osgood, fakes a slap shot and gets Osgood to go for the fake, skates around him with an open net in front of him…and shoots the puck through the crease and wide of the goal.  Suddenly, the fans at Joe Louis Arena were at full throat, and Detroit had the momentum.  Later in the period, after constant pressure, the Red Wings would tie the score at 4 and send it to overtime, and late into the first overtime, Kris Draper backhanded a pass from Lapointe past the glove side of Kolzig for the 5-4 win and a 2-0 lead.  Detroit would sweep the series and win their second straight Stanley Cup.

While the Caps probably don’t win the series even if Tikkanen scores, and while it’s not guaranteed that they even win that particular game, anything can happen in hockey, and a split in Hockeytown would have done wonders for Washington’s confidence heading home.  But they had already been faced with a tall mountain to climb, going against a team with eight eventual Hall of Famers, including the coach.  Giving that team in that building another lifeline is asking for trouble.

(Side note: That highlight video reminded me of two things: 1) Gary Thorne had the quintessential hockey voice, and it’s unfortunate that he’s not doing NHL anymore (but Doc Emrick is just as good), and 2) the two-line pass rule actually existed once upon a time.)

Case 2: Tampa Bay 14, Washington 13 (1999-2000 NFC Divisional Round

This was a defensive struggle of the highest order.  Tampa Bay’s elite defense held the Redskins to just 6 points and 157 yards, but their offense, led by rookie quarterback Shaun King, did very little in the way of moving the ball against one of the lower-ranked defenses in the league, logging just 186 yards of their own.  Washington led 13-0 thanks to Brian Mitchell running the second-half opening kickoff back for a touchdown and two field goals from Brett Conway, one of which happened after a Darrell Green interception.

Later in the 3rd, Brad Johnson would force a deep ball into coverage, but John Lynch makes an easy interception, and now the Raymond James Stadium crowd comes back to life.  A few completions from King and a drawn pass-interference penalty later, and they’re on the doorstep.  Enter Mike Alstott, one of the biggest nuisances for defenses to tackle in recent memory, especially in short-yardage situations.  It showed on consecutive plays, the second of which was a 2-yard touchdown run where he tried to run right, found no running room, bounced off of would-be tacklers, turns around and runs in the opposite direction, and outruns everyone to reach the endzone.  It’s the archetypal NFL Primetime highlight where you would hear Chris Berman make those voiceless “boom, boom, boom” noises (such as the last highlight in this video).

The Bucs’ defense shows up again in the 4th with a blindside strip-sack from Steve White with Warren Sapp recovering the fumble.  But if you needed any more proof that this would end disastrously, look no further than the ensuing possession.  It looked like Washington’s defense would return the favor with a strip-sack from Shawn Barber (on a 3rd down, even!), but out of nowhere, Warrick Dunn scoops up the football and dashes for a first down.  Uh-oh.  A fourth-down conversion later, and Tampa Bay jumps in front by a point.

Yet somehow, Washington still has a chance to win, and they even get close enough to try a go-ahead field goal with a little more than a minute left. While it would have been a difficult field goal for Conway, making only 3 of 9 attempts from beyond 50 yards that season, we’ll never know for sure if he would have made it, as Dan Turk made an errant snap and the field goal was never attempted. Tampa Bay would run out the clock for the win. Heartbreak city indeed.

For Turk, a solid NFL career at center ended with unfortunate struggles as the long snapper in his final season. Sadly, he literally couldn’t live his mistake down, as he was diagnosed with testicular cancer months after the game and passed away that Christmas Eve.

LEVEL 5: THE ROLE REVERSAL

Any rivalry in which one team dominated another team for an extended period of time, then the perennial loser improbably turned the tables. … Like when Beecher fought back against Schillinger in “Oz,” knocked him out and even pulled a Najeh Davenport on his face. For the fans of the vanquished team, the most crushing part of the “Role Reversal” isn’t the actual defeat as much as the loss of an ongoing edge over the fans from the other team. You lose the jokes, the arrogance and the unwavering confidence that the other team can’t beat you. There’s almost a karmic shift. You can feel it.

I’m actually going to include a win for this one because of its significance in the rivalry.  As for the loss, it may not actually be a rivalry, but it does involve a breaking of a lengthy losing streak.

Case 1: Detroit 33, Washington 17 (1999 NFL season, Week 13)

Not much outside of the game was significant except that the Lions broke an 18-game losing streak dating back to their last victory against Washington in 1965.  After all, both teams would make the playoffs, and the ‘Skins would win their head-to-head meeting in the Wild Card round.  In the eight total meetings since this loss, Detroit has gone 4-4, but two of those wins had significance.

The 2009 game was embarrassing as Washington became the team that ended the Lions’ 19-game losing streak which included the infamous 0-16 season.  One of the many reasons why the Jim Zorn era was a nightmare.

The 2013 win was the first ever road win in the DC area and the first road win since the ‘Skins were in Boston back in 1935.

Case 2: Washington 14, Dallas 13 (2005 NFL season, Week 2)

It’s well established that tons of Cowboys fans live in this area and are anywhere between the second- and fourth-most popular team in the region.  For a time between 1997 and 2004, their fans have held all of the bragging rights in this historic rivalry. The only exception during this time was a practically meaningless game at the end of the 2002 season, which also happened to be the final game of the illustrious careers of Darrell Green and Emmitt Smith (and before anyone says it, no, those two Arizona years never happened; stop hallucinating).  But during that time, there were last-second field goals, complete second-half collapses, and full-blown beatdowns, all in Dallas’ favor.

This was a mostly defensive battle throughout, with the only touchdown being 70-yard flea flicker pass from Drew Bledsoe to Terry Glenn (both former teammates in New England, also under Bill Parcells) which you can see at the end of this video.  After Dallas stretched the lead to 13-0 midway through the fourth quarter, the Monday Night Football production crew at ABC decides to run a graphic detailing the success of Parcells-coached teams with a lead of at least 13 points in fourth quarters.

parcells 77-0

It’s as if someone watching the broadcast relayed the graphic to Joe Gibbs and the gang on the sideline.  No sooner than the moment that appears on the screen, the comeback begins.  After a sack sets up 3rd and 27, 35-year-old Mark Brunell uses his scrambling ability to pick up 25 of those yards back, setting up a 4th-and-2, where Brunell would find James Thrash in the flat to keep the chains moving.  Faced with another 4th-and-long, Brunell goes deep and finds Santana Moss in the endzone after he beat Roy Williams deep.  Game on.

After forcing a punt, Washington has it with less than three minutes to play.  Two plays later, Brunell goes deep again, and again it’s Moss victimizing Williams on the long touchdown catch to put the ‘Skins up 14-13.  The Cowboys could not respond in two possessions (including one of Sean Taylor’s memorable hits on would-be receivers), and as the final whistle blew, the Washington sideline exploded in jubilation, celebrating their first win in North Texas since 1995.

The icing on the cake was the Week 15 meeting in Landover.  The ‘Skins would inch closer to the playoffs with a 35-7 beatdown.  Brunell threw for four touchdowns, Chris Cooley caught three of those, Clinton Portis ran for 112 yards, the defense sacked Bledsoe seven times (with Phillip Daniels getting four of them) and intercepted him three times, and most importantly, after the end of the game, thousands of Cowboys fans in the DC area were silenced for months on end.

What will make the list as the worst losses in recent DC sports history? Find out in Part 4 tomorrow!


The Levels of Losing, DC Sports Edition (Part 2 of 4)

After another playoff disappointment from the Washington Capitals, I’ve started to explore some of the biggest losses in Washington, DC sports since 1992, the year a DC team last won a title in any of the big four professional sports leagues using Bill Simmons’ “Levels of Losing 2.0″ standard.  You can find Part 1 of this series here.

Let’s continue.

LEVEL 12: THE SUDDEN DEATH

Is there another fan experience quite like overtime hockey, when every slap shot, breakaway and centering pass might spell doom, and losing feels 10 times worse than winning feels good (if that makes sense)? … There’s only one mitigating factor: When OT periods start piling up and you lose the capacity to care anymore, invariably you start rooting for the game to just end, just so you don’t suffer a heart attack.

The Capitals have been through a number of these things in their history, and it comes to reason that every appearance on this list has been a loss.  For older fans, the obvious example would be Game 7 of the 1987 first round series with the Islanders, with Pat LaFontaine scoring in the fourth overtime, but since that doesn’t fit the parameters of what I’m looking for (not only was it before 1992, but it was also before I was even born), I’ll have to go with another game.

Case 1: Pittsburgh 3, Washington 2 (4OT) (1996 NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 4)

Case 2: New York Rangers 2, Washington 1 (3OT) (2012 NHL Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 3)

I couldn’t choose between either of these because they were both insane in their own ways.  Both were home games, both took place on Wednesday night (into Thursday morning), neither were elimination games, and both ended with the (all-too-common) raucous cheers of opposing fanbases as their teams scored game-winning goals.

I don’t have a firsthand memory of the 1996 game, but any game that ends after 2 a.m. on a weeknight HAS to have fans of both teams just wanting someone to just score already so they can go home and go to work.  And believe it or not, the game was just seconds away from needing at least a FIFTH overtime.  Considering that the Blue Line of the Metro hadn’t yet stretched out to where the Cap Centre/USAir/whatever that place was called, there probably weren’t too many stranded spectators there that used public transportation.  With all the issues with the Metro today, keeping the system open for a game this long would be a tough sell.

As seemingly customary with Washington, there were tons of missed opportunities.  They were up 2-1 when Mario Lemieux was ejected at the end of the 2nd period, and they couldn’t take advantage.  They had tons of shots in the first overtime period.  The puck came inches away from going in when it was swept away to safety in the second overtime.  The Caps were even given a penalty shot shortly after that when a Penguin unhinged the net from its moorings, but Joe Juneau couldn’t get a clean shot off his stick.  A few overtimes later, Petr Nedved’s shot from the left circle somehow got past several bodies in front of the net and past Olaf Kolzig for the win.

16 years later, the Capitals found themselves in another marathon match.  Luckily, this one took place in Chinatown, and the Metro stayed open for an extra hour, so transportation was not as much of an issue.  This one, though, kept fans of both teams on edge with chances going both ways in the extra sessions and pucks hitting posts left and right until Marian Gaborik finally let fans go to bed with his triple-overtime winner.

LEVEL 11: DEAD MAN WALKING

Applies to any playoff series in which your team remains “alive,” but they just suffered a loss so catastrophic and so harrowing that there’s no possible way they can bounce back. … Especially disheartening because you wave the white flag mentally, but there’s a tiny part of you still holding out hope for a miraculous momentum change. … So you’ve given up, but you’re still getting hurt, if that makes sense. … Just for the record, the 2002 Nets and 2005 Astros proved that you can fight off The Dead Man Walking Game, but it doesn’t happen often.

Case: Indiana 95, Washington 92 (2014 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 4)

“Walking” being the operative word here.  Looking at you, Roy Hibbert.

The Wizards returned to the playoffs for the first time since the Gilbert Arenas/Antawn Jamison/Caron Butler years in 2014.  It surprised me when they got past Chicago in just five games, and it looked like they’d give Indiana a competitive series (which they did to a point).

Washington trailed the series 2-1 (that win coming due in large part to Hibbert posting another historically awful performance in Game 1…and that was the second time that postseason that he had a 0 point, 0 rebound performance) and faced a must-win Game 4.  They held a 19-point lead early in the 3rd quarter, but that lead quickly evaporated when the former Georgetown center began contributing again and Paul George caught fire from the field, scoring 28 of his 39 points in the second half.

Yet despite completely losing the lead early in the 4th, the Wiz still opened up a nine-point lead halfway through the period, primed to even the series at 2-2.  Naturally, though, George helped shoot the Pacers back into the game, and eventually, the lead.  Hibbert would then receive a pass in the post, travel pivot a few times, and score on a baby hook shot.  The last Wizards possession encapsulated the Randy Wittman era in late game situations.  Down by three, Trevor Ariza throws the ball away and the Wizards don’t even get a shot off.  While the Wizards were still technically alive in the series (and even took Game 5 on the road!), it would have been too tall a task to come all the way back to win the series.

LEVEL 10: THE MONKEY WRENCH

Any situation in which either (A) the manager/coach of your team made an idiotic game decision or (B) a referee/umpire robbed your team of impending victory. … The Monkey Wrench Game gains steam as the days and months roll along. … The Patriots and Raiders deserve special mention here because they played two Monkey Wrench games 26 years apart — the ’76 playoff game (when Ben Dreith’s dubious “roughing the passer” call on “Sugar Bear” Hamilton gave the Raiders second life), and the infamous Snow Game (the Brady fumble/nonfumble). … Funny how life works out.

As an honorable mention, the Joe Gibbs II era had a few of these, mainly owing to how much the game had changed in the 11 seasons between stints with Washington.  The most notable of these was the 2007 game against Buffalo in the first game since Sean Taylor was killed.  As Buffalo lined up to kick what would have been a 51-yard field goal, Gibbs called two timeouts consecutively to try to ice the kicker, which resulted in an 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.  Rian Lindell would make the 36-yard kick and win it for the Bills, spoiling what would have been a huge emotional boost for the Redskins at the time.  All things considered, the blunder did not affect their playoff chances, as they got in anyway.

Case: San Francisco 2, Washington 1 (18 innings) (2014 NLDS Game 2)

This also could have been a “Dead Man Walking” game, but I put it here for one reason.

After their second NL East title in three years, the Nationals were once again favorites to reach the World Series.  The Giants won Game 1, and Game 2 wound up being the longest postseason game in baseball history.  The only problem is that the game shouldn’t have even lasted half as long as it did.

This was a pitcher’s duel between Jordan Zimmermann (who had thrown a no-hitter in the final game of the season) and Tim Hudson.  Anthony Rendon’s RBI single in the third inning was the only run of the game for the first eight innings.

Zimmermann pitched eight shutout innings, allowed three hits, struck out five, and retired 18 straight batters entering the 9th inning.  He continued to pitch effectively in the 9th, striking out the first batter he faced and inducing a fly ball out from the second, bringing the Nats one out away from victory.

Enter rookie manager Matt Williams and home plate umpire Vic Carapazza.  Zimmermann tries to paint the outside corner of the plate on the first two pitches against Joe Panik, and both pitches looked to be close enough to be called strikes, but Carapazza calls both pitches balls, irking Zimmermann and many of the 44,035 in attendance at Nationals Park.  Carapazza had been calling a consistent game behind the plate up until  that moment, as according to FanGraphs, Zimmermann was getting the outside corner called in his favor all game.  After falling behind in the count, Zimmermann is unable to recover and walks Panik after three more pitches.

While Zimmermann had just reached 100 pitches on the game, he hadn’t really shown any signs of slowing down, but Williams pulls him in favor of Drew Storen.  While Storen had the best season of his career, reclaiming the closer role after Rafael Soriano proved too inconsistent, you couldn’t help but wonder how Storen would respond in his first postseason appearance since a certain game which I will get to later in this countdown.  Needless to say, Storen gives up a hit to Buster Posey on his first pitch, and two pitches later, he gives up a double down the left field line to Pablo Sandoval, scoring Panik from second and tying the game, and laying the foundation for enough extra innings to stand alone as a regulation game.  Brandon Belt would hit the go-ahead home run in the top of 18th inning and the Giants would close out the Nats in the bottom of the inning.

Of course, hindsight is 20/20, and it’s easy to rip Williams for pulling Zimmermann for Storen after the fact.  To be fair, some have made decent arguments supporting Williams’ decision to go with his closer with the heart of San Francisco’s order coming up.  But either way, we might not even be having this discussion had the Nats’ 3-6 hitters Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche, Ian Desmond, and Bryce Harper done any better than go a combined 2-for-28 with no extra base hits or any hits with runners in scoring position.

As for the umpiring, it’s also worth noting that some Nationals hitters, particularly Bryce Harper and Asdrubal Cabrera, also had issues with Carapazza’s zone in extra innings.  In fact, both Cabrera and Williams were ejected from the game in the 10th inning for arguing balls and strikes.  A frustrating game all around.

LEVEL 9: THE FULL-FLEDGED BUTT-KICKING

Sometimes you can tell right away when it isn’t your team’s day. … And that’s the worst part, not just the epiphany but everything that follows — every botched play; every turnover; every instance where someone on your team quits; every “deer in the headlights” look; every time an announcer says, “They can’t get anything going”; every shot of the opponents celebrating; every time you look at the score and think to yourself, “Well, if we score here and force a turnover, maybe we’ll get some momentum,” but you know it’s not going to happen, because you’re already 30 points down. … You just want it to end, and it won’t end. … But you can’t look away. … It’s the sports fan’s equivalent to a three-hour torture session.

I’m going to need to squeeze two of these in here, because they’re both too significant on their own to leave out, and they don’t really fit anywhere else.

Case 1: Pittsburgh 6, Washington 2 (2009 NHL Eastern Conference Semifinals, Game 7)

It was the series that the NHL probably (not-so?) secretly wanted. Penguins-Capitals. Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, the two young stars of the game at the time, going face to face in what would become a 7-game series. The series had a Game 2 in which Ovi and Sid would post dueling hat tricks. There were three overtime games. In fact, five of the first six games were decided by one goal. So you would think that Game 7 would offer more of the same riveting hockey as the first six games, right?

Ovechkin would have the first chance on a breakaway. He closes in, goes glove side on Marc-Andre Fleury. And somehow, from point-blank range, Fleury snags it out of midair. Uh-oh.

Then the Penguins get a power play, and of course, they take advantage. Crosby cleans up a rebound from ex-Cap Sergei Gonchar and the Penguins are on the board first. Ouch.

But wait. Before Semyon Varlamov can even settle back into his crease, he gets five-holed by Craig Adams eight seconds after the faceoff. Double ouch.

Then the second period starts, and we’re not even a minute in, and it’s the ancient Bill Guerin blazing a slapper past Varlamov. Triple ouch.

A few minutes later, and Kris Letang joins the party with a goal from the right circle, which turned out the be the knockout blow for Varlamov as Bruce Boudreau pulls him. Cue the shots of dejected fans and a crestfallen Ovechkin on the Versus feed. And we still haven’t even gotten through three minutes in the second period.

…Wait. You thought Jose Theodore would come away unscathed? Thanks to some lackluster defense, the Penguins tic-tac-toe their way to a Jordan Staal goal to make it 5-0. It’s gotten so bad that Ovechkin has stopped trying to hit the Penguins and is plowing over his own teammates.

Oh, there you are, Ovechkin, taking an ill-advised pass from Fleury behind his own goal and putting it in. Hooray for stat-padding, I guess?

Fittingly, this game is effectively bookended by breakaway chances, as Crosby calmly skates in on Theodore’s goal and slides one through the five-hole. Here’s where you fire up the old Simpsons “Stop, stop, he’s already dead” clip.  (Brooks Laich did score a garbage-time goal afterward, but the damage had already been done.)

For a moment, it looked like Game 6 of Crosby-Ovechkin II would go down this path, but Washington showed some fight there to send it to overtime.  But that one ended badly, too.

(Side note: I was in a makeshift sports newsroom at NBC4 on my first day at an internship there [the main one was undergoing a renovation at the time], logging the footage and highlights of this curbstomping.)

Case 2: Philadelphia 59, Washington 28 (2010 NFL season, Week 10)

Yeah, I know, this ultimately meant nothing in terms of the playoffs.  But it was 28-0 before anyone could settle down in their seat.  Quite possibly the most embarrassing effort I’ve ever seen this team put forth. If there was an “Inexcusable White Flag” level, this would go there.

But as verbose as I’ve been in this piece, I think it’s best that I just defer to Chad Dukes and LaVar Arrington on this one.

So many memorable bits from that.

Chad: [on Albert Haynesworth] HE’S DOING THE WORM, LAVAR!

LaVar: It looked like he was just dead.

Plus, all of LaVar’s “GET ‘EM!”‘s, wishing JoePa was around to kick people off the team left and right (although knowing what we know now about him…eh, no comment), wanting reparations, and the part about wanting a kid so he can use all of the “burgundy and gold diapers” in his closet.  Classic.

The Swinging Gate game against the Giants in ’09 as Jim Zorn has one foot out the door would also qualify as this “Inexcusable White Flag” subcategory.  Let’s just say Monday night games at home are disasters waiting to happen.

Levels 8 through 5 are still to come when I post Part 3 tomorrow.


The Levels of Losing, DC Sports Edition (Part 1 of 4)

Another year.  Another superb Washington Capitals regular season ending in playoff disappointment.  Another year of wondering whether the Capitals will get over the conference semifinal hump.  Another year of fans left asking questions starting with “what if.”

“What if the puck bounced this way instead of that way?”

“What if the Caps didn’t take that penalty?”

“What if professional sports teams in the DC area are cursed?”

That last question seems to loom larger and larger as we become farther and farther removed from 1992, the year in which a major professional sports team from the DC area last won a championship.  Since then, the franchises in the four major professional sports leagues here have endured varying degrees of mediocrity, from historical ineptitude, to irrelevance, to unfulfilled promise, to utter heartbreak.

The championship droughts of professional sports teams in places like Cleveland and Buffalo have been well-documented in American sports lore.  Countless articles, sports talk radio rants, TV news stories, and even feature-length documentaries have been made about them.  That the Browns’ 1964 NFL championship is Cleveland’s most recent major sports title is common knowledge, as was the relocation of the Browns to Baltimore (or more technically, a suspension of the franchise) after the 1995 NFL season.  That the Bills lost four consecutive Super Bowls and that the Sabres were victims of a missed crease violation on Brett Hull’s Stanley Cup-winning goal has been woven into the fabric of all stories recounting historically tortured sports cities.  Sports fans in these two cities have had to endure the most painful defeats of any city in the country.

While not nearly on the same level as what Cleveland and Buffalo have had to endure, the Washington, DC area sports franchises collectively hold a dubious drought of their own.  1998 was the last time that a team had made it to the championship round of any of the four major sports, which is the longest current drought of any city with at least three major sports teams.  In fact, that was also the last time a team here has even gone as far as the conference championship/LCS round, a point in which every sports city with at least three teams has since passed.

In 2002, Bill Simmons, then writing for ESPN, devised a list of 13 “levels of losing,” used to measure various levels of anguish and devastation sports teams’ losses can bring to a fanbase, from the benign “happy to be there” kind all the way to the downright tragic (in a sports sense, of course) that gets replayed in all-time sports montages for the rest of time. Simmons revised the list to 16 levels in 2007.

Having begun to follow professional sports at around 1996 and 1997 and having growing up in the DC area, I’ve remembered more than enough big losses from teams in this area, and while many who are older than me could probably remember further back in time, I’m sticking to anything that occurred since 1992.  I will also not include collegiate sports here, as the DC area consists of two (three, eventually?) different states, and the transient nature of this region does not really allow for any one school’s sports teams to unite the city.  Thus, the University of Maryland’s infamous “Gone in 60 Seconds” game, or even the Final Four matchup with Duke that same year (or others from Maryland or Georgetown or any other local university) will not appear here.  While I appreciate what DC United has done, I would still hesitate to consider Major League Soccer a major professional sports league in this country for the sake of this piece, despite the league’s name.

With that, let’s get started.

LEVEL 16: THE PRINCETON PRINCIPLE

When a Cinderella team hangs tough against a heavy favorite, but the favorite somehow prevails in the end (like Princeton almost toppling Georgetown in the ’89 NCAAs). … This one stings because you had low expectations, but those gritty underdogs raised your hopes. … Also works for boxing, especially in situations like Balboa-Creed I (“He doesn’t know it’s a damn show! He thinks it’s a damn fight!”). … The moment that always sucks you in: in college hoops, when they show shots of the bench scrubs leaping up and down and hugging each other during the “These guys won’t go away!” portion of the game, before the collapse at the end.

I’ve decided to add two examples here due to some similarities between both cases, as they were both against the same opponent in the same venue, with the team in question taking similar paths to the playoffs (and although one of those teams was not as much of an underdog in the particular game, they had a more dramatic path to the playoffs, and as such, I’ll begin with that one).

Case 1: Seattle 35, Washington 14 (2007-08 NFC Wild Card Round)

Babs-TD-vs-Redskins

2007 may have been the most resilient team that Joe Gibbs has coached in his second time around in DC. It seemed like a miracle that this team even got to the playoffs after starting the season 5-7 and having to overcome a number of injuries to key starters, including at quarterback, two positions on the offensive line, linebacker, and cornerback. And all of that doesn’t even include the unspeakably tragic death of Sean Taylor late in the season. After the loss to Buffalo, Washington reeled off four straight wins against potential playoff contenders to get the sixth and final seed in the playoffs, all with Todd Collins–a quarterback who until that year hadn’t thrown a pass in a regular season game in three years and hadn’t started a game in 10 years–playing efficiently down the stretch.

While they didn’t start off particularly well offensively, the Redskins’ defense kept the game within reach entering the fourth quarter, trailing 13-0 in Qwest Field, one of the most difficult stadiums for away teams to play in. An 84-yard drive capped by an Antwaan Randle-El touchdown pass made it 13-7, and after a LaRon Landry interception on the Seahawks’ ensuing drive, Collins hit Santana Moss for a go-ahead touchdown to put the ‘Skins up 14-13. Momentum had shifted so far to Washington that they wound up getting the ball back on the ensuing kickoff after Seattle had misplayed the ball thanks to a tricky wind. Even with the favorable field position, they didn’t get any points from it. Shaun Suisham hooked a makeable 30-yard field goal to the left.

Despite the setback, Washington would get another interception from Landry, but Seattle made a defensive stop and scored a touchdown and two-point conversion on the next drive to lead it 21-14. Collins’ good fortune ran out eventually after a pair of pick-sixes–his first interceptions thrown all season, mind you–as Seattle would cruise to victory.  This turned out to be Gibbs’ final NFL game, as he would walk away from the final year of his contract that offseason. Despite how it ended, this 2007 team had an awful lot to be proud of, given the difficult circumstances they played through.

Case 2: Seattle 20, Washington 10 (2005-06 NFC Divisional Round)

image1219672

After dropping an overtime game at home against San Diego, Washington stood at 5-6 and were in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the second straight year in Gibbs’ return to the team.  But with Mark Brunell finding the fountain of youth, Clinton Portis and Santana Moss having breakout years, and the defense beginning to come into its own, the team won five consecutive must-win games and made the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

After knocking off Tampa Bay in the previous round, Washington had a tough task ahead going into Seattle for the Divisional round.  The Seahawks had the best record in the NFC at 13-3 and were favorites to get to the Super Bowl out of the NFC.  Seattle was an 8.5 point favorite, but they lost a fumble in the red zone early on, and they later lost league MVP Shaun Alexander to a concussion, and the playing field began to level.

In the 4th quarter, Seattle’s lead was cut to 17-10, and the ‘Skins recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff, but they could not take advantage, stalling in the Seattle red zone and settling for a 36-yard field goal from John Hall…that he missed.  The Seahawks effectively put the game away with a long drive ending in a field goal, but how many people expected Brunell to turn back the clock on his career and have the season he had?  While Washington returned to the playoffs two years later, this was their most successful team in the Gibbs II era.

LEVEL 15: THE ACHILLES HEEL

This defeat transcends the actual game, because it revealed something larger about your team, a fatal flaw exposed for everyone to see. … Flare guns are fired, red flags are raised, doubt seeps into your team. … Usually the beginning of the end. (You don’t fully comprehend this until you’re reflecting back on it.)

Case: Detroit 37, Washington 25 (2010 NFL season, Week 8)

alg_mcnabb_shanahan-split

Before the 2010 season, Philadelphia raised eyebrows around the league when they decided to trade Donovan McNabb, arguably their best quarterback in franchise history, within the division to Washington months after their coach Andy Reid insisted that McNabb would return to the team.  As analysts initially panned the move from the Eagles’ standpoint, fans in this area were once again excited by their team making a splash move in the offseason with the hopes of a competitive team, months after hiring two-time Super Bowl champion coach Mike Shanahan.

McNabb had a pedestrian start to the 2010 season with his touchdown numbers falling and interceptions rising from previous years (this due in large part to the change in scenery), but the ‘Skins were 4-3 and well in the mix at the top of the NFC East.  They were leading Detroit 25-20 in the 4th quarter and had the ball with less than five minutes remaining, but on 2nd and 10, McNabb tried to force the ball through coverage to his intended receiver, but his pass was intercepted, and the Lions drove down the field to score a touchdown and take a 28-25 lead.  McNabb was unable to move the ball on the next drive, but the defense held Detroit to just three points with 1:45 left, so there was still time for a comeback.

Only it wouldn’t be McNabb trying to lead the comeback.

Shanahan would replace McNabb with Rex Grossman (yes, the Rex Grossman who gravy-trained his way to a Super Bowl appearance with the Bears while inhibiting whatever shred of an offense they ever had), citing Grossman’s apparent knowledge of the two-minute offense and McNabb’s “cardiovascular conditioning” not being up to par.  Fittingly, on the very first snap Grossman takes, he gets sacked, fumbles the football, and Ndamukong Suh recovers it and takes it the rest of the way for a touchdown to seal a Lions victory.

Despite signing an incentive-laden contract that only guaranteed $3.5 million after that game, McNabb appeared to be nearing the end of his career.  The ‘Skins languished thereafter, going 2-6 the rest of the way to finish 6-10.  McNabb was demoted to third string with three games left in the season.  And this was the first of several instances of Shanahan struggling to explain himself after making questionable decisions regarding his starting quarterbacks during his tenure in Washington.

LEVEL 14: THE ALPHA DOG

It might have been a devastating loss, but at least you could take solace that a superior player made the difference in the end. … Unfortunately, he wasn’t playing for your team. … You feel more helpless here than anything. … For further reference, see any of MJ’s games in the NBA Finals against Utah (’97 and ’98).

Case: Washington vs. Chicago (1997 NBA Playoffs, first round)

As this was my first full year following the NBA, I was vaguely aware of this playoff series. For the Bulls, this series was supposed to be a formality on the road to repeating as champions under Phil Jackson, Michael Jordan, and the rest of the team.  While they didn’t quite match their NBA-record-setting (at the time) 72 wins, they did tie for the second-best record in NBA history at 69-13.  And there was no way that they would let themselves become the second 1-seed to go down to the 8-seed.  (Just imagine the Gheorghe Muresan equivalent of Dikembe Mutombo lying on the floor, holding the ball in the air.)

Despite the sweep, Washington was extremely competitive in this series and even held a lead in the third quarter of Game 2. But the Bullets went cold from the field that quarter and lost the lead, and in the fourth quarter, Michael Jordan went full MJ, scoring 20 of the team’s 23 points to cap off a 55-point night.

Game 3 came before a raucous crowd at the Capital Centre (or whatever the name of the airline that bought the naming rights to it was), and the teams were neck-and-neck throughout the game. Rod Strickland led the team with 24 points and Tracy Murray caught fire off the bench and added 20 of his own. Washington even pulled ahead by nine for a time late in the game. But once again, this wasn’t just any 1-seed the Bullets were playing. This was a team with three Hall of Famers (not including a 43-year-old Robert Parish who hardly played in his final NBA season), Jordan did his usual thing, and Scottie Pippen turned it on with 16 of his 20 points coming in the second half, including beating Calbert Cheaney along the baseline and delivering a series-clinching two-handed dunk over Harvey Grant with just seconds left.

With budding stars Chris Webber and Juwan Howard, this was thought to be just the beginning for a team on the rise.  That, however, never materialized, as the newly-rebranded Wizards missed the playoffs the next year, Webber was traded (which still makes zero sense), and Howard was given that massive contract.  No wonder this team underachieved for so long between then and the Gilbert Arenas years.

LEVEL 13: THE RABBIT’S FOOT

Now we’re starting to get into “Outright Painful” territory. … This applies to those frustrating games and/or series in which every single break seemingly goes against your team. … Unbelievably frustrating. … You know that sinking, “Oh, God, I’ve been here before” feeling when something unfortunate happens, when your guard immediately goes shooting up? … Yeah, I’m wincing just writing about it.

Case: Washington vs. New York Rangers (2013 NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals)

In one of the many series that have gone 7 games in the Alex Ovechkin era, the Capitals have had the supposed benefit of home ice advantage, but they’ve lost more Game 7s at home than won.  Washington won the first two games of the series, but at that point, most of their good fortune had run out.  They couldn’t avoid taking the silliest of penalties, especially in the games at the Garden (part of it was their own doing and part of it could be the product of very few, if any, calls going their way), and the Rangers had out-powerplayed them 28 to 16 throughout the series.  The Caps also outshot them 226-205. But Henrik Lundqvist, as you would expect from him during the postseason, had his Superman cape on in goal and posted consecutive shutouts when the Blueshirts were facing elimination.

Game 6 was especially frustrating.  Despite the Rangers getting the only five power plays in the game, the Caps fought all five of them off, but despite a few big chances to score, it was a Derick Brassard shot that glanced off the body of Steve Oleksy and completely caught Braden Holtby off guard that stood as the only goal in the game.

Washington also had many of the early chances in Game 7, but again, Lundqvist was a man on a mission, and when he starts making saves with his skate blade, you know you’re in trouble.  It also didn’t help that Holtby was letting in soft goals from fourth-liners like Arron Asham and then giving up two goals a little more than two minutes apart in the 2nd period.  At that point, the Rangers wrested full control of the game, and Caps fans found the team in a familiar position: congratulating their opponents for moving on (while probably muttering a few choice words unsuitable for this blog under their breaths).

Stay tuned for Part 2, to be released tomorrow.


Maybe We Should Stop Trying to Compare Leicester City’s Title Run to Other Sports

leicester-city-champions

A few Mondays ago, one of the unlikeliest of sports achievements has finally been realized.  Across the Atlantic, Leicester City Football Club overcame steep odds to win the Premier League title and become champions of England for the first time in the club’s 132-year history.

In a sport where glory has become dictated more by the wealth of the clubs’ owners than much else, the Foxes’ triumph had all the makings of a Cinderella story culminating with the perfect ending.  They stood in last place in the league on Christmas Day the previous season (almost the halfway point in the season; usually a harbinger of relegation), earned 22 of a possible 24 standings points in the team’s final eight matches of the season to rise from last place to finish 14th in the league, endured a racist sex tape scandal in the offseason involving three players (including the then-manager’s son), all of whom (plus the manager himself) were terminated, hired a manager that had been fired from Greece’s national team after an embarrassing loss the previous year, has spent the fourth-least amount of money in the league on player salaries, and, as has been mentioned repeatedly by nearly everyone following this story, faced 5,000-to-1 odds to win the Premier League.

As Leicester City approached clinching the title, the sports media in the United States began to take notice.  Talking heads on TV and the radio began mentioning what the club had been doing in passing.  SportsCenter showed their highlights more often (although, like most mainstream soccer coverage in the States, it was still scant compared to the major sports here).  ESPN began showing their scores on their BottomLine ticker; the space for soccer scores is normally normally reserved for notable European league matches, and added more details about their matches as winning the title became more and more likely.

And eventually they did it.  After Tottenham failed to keep up in the title race after a 2-2 draw with Chelsea, Leicester City clinched the title.  As many Americans are wont to do (including yours truly!) when a soccer story or event gets our attention, many have tried to put the 5,000-to-1 championship odds that Leicester City faced at the beginning of the season in perspective for American sports fans unfamiliar with soccer by comparing this to a similar hypothetical in American sports.

As it turns out, that task is virtually impossible in modern times when you look at the championship odds of even the bottom-feeders in the respective American sports leagues.  At the time of this writing, the Cleveland Browns have the longest odds of any NFL team to win Super Bowl LI at 200-to-1.  In October of last year, the Philadelphia 76ers, a team in the throes of a years-long rebuilding process, were tied with the Charlotte Hornets with having 350-to-1 odds to win the NBA Finals.  The 1999 St. Louis Rams are pointed to as the most likely comparison, having finished 4-12 the previous year and having had its projected starting quarterback suffer a season-ending injury shortly before the start of the season, but even their odds were still just 300-to-1 before they went on to win Super Bowl XXXIV, and it’s this victory that is said to have changed the way that the Vegas sportsbooks determine future odds so that few teams, if any, could have preseason odds much steeper than 200-to-1 in the NFL.  Outside of the hypothetical of a minor league team joining one of the Big Four sports leagues and winning its respective title, there really is no comparison in pro sports to what Leicester City achieved this season.

And when you really think of it, it makes all the sense in the world, not only because of the enforced parity measures in many American sports such as amateur drafts where worse teams get priority, the salary cap, and the luxury tax, but also because of the differing season formats and how each league determines its champion.

In many American sports, to have a chance at winning a league championship, a team must qualify for the playoffs.  The truly elite teams in each league usually have very little difficulty qualifying for the playoffs, but those teams that are on a tier or two below the elite might have to work harder to get in.  But once the playoff field is set, the teams start with a clean slate and only need to win as few as three or four single-elimination games (in the NFL) and as many as 16 (in the NBA and NHL) games in best-of-seven playoff series.  With elimination from the playoffs hinging on such small margins, it is understood that the teams that play well in the playoffs might have not necessarily had the best records in their league.  Thus, a team could still have a decent shot at winning the title by getting hot at the right time even if it didn’t perform as well as the elite teams in the same season.  And for those expected to struggle mightily in the league, a surprisingly-good season could theoretically give them just as much of a shot at a title as the alpha dogs.  Because more teams have a realistic shot at winning a championship in sports with playoffs (especially in the NFL, when a team’s championship fortunes can turn “on any given Sunday”), there tends to be less variance in Vegas future odds in these leagues.

In many soccer leagues in the world, the team that finishes the regular season at the top of the standings is the league champion.  No playoff is needed, as each team plays each other in a double round robin format, home and away.  Because the United States is such a large country and teams are normally divided by geography (and thus play the teams nearest to them ore often than those farther), each team’s record does not accurately reflect their quality relative to the rest of the league (in other words, a team with the best record might have simply played weaker teams more often than some of the other teams with good-but-not-great records in another conference or division; see the 2009-10 Washington Capitals as an example).  Many European countries (except for Russia) are smaller, with cities and clubs closer to each other than in the United States, which eliminates the need for geographic divisions at the highest level, so a team’s final record is representative of their quality of play over the course of the season.  Add the imbalance of resources among football clubs in England (and in most other countries in the footballing world) and winning a league title becomes one of the most difficult achievements in sports.  Leicester City needed to prove over a span of 38 games to be better than 19 other clubs, some of which had spent as much as four times as the Foxes did on player salaries and anywhere between three and eight times as much on bringing in new players.

Even in college sports where the fan culture and traditions most closely mirror world football, even the teams with the longest odds still had better odds than Leicester City apparently had.  In college football, the major American sport with arguably the most significant regular season, Heading into this past college football season, nine teams had the longest odds of any Division I FBS school to win the College Football Playoff championship at 500-to-1.  One could say that the odds do not include very many schools in the lower-tier FBS conferences due to the assumed exclusivity of CFP bids, since such teams could win every game on their schedule and not get a bid due to playing a weaker schedule than the bigger schools.  Even betting those teams wouldn’t be wise, as Vegas had “the field” listed as 65-to-1 underdogs.

Surprisingly, heading into this past season, Division I college basketball had the only instances of four-digit future odds to win the NCAA Tournament at 1,000-to-1, even considering that college basketball has been criticized recently for having a relatively meaningless regular season.  Theoretically, a team could lose every regular season game prior to their conference tournament (provided that their conference allows every team not already banned from postseason play due to NCAA violations to compete in their conference tournament), win the four or five consecutive games necessary to win said tournament (and thus earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament) and in turn win six or seven in a row en route to cutting down the nets in celebration of a national championship.  This, of course, is an extreme example that has never actually happened, but several teams have sneaked into the Big Dance and made deep runs, upsetting basketball powers along the way, so such a triumph would not be unheard of, and just like in the example with the St. Louis Rams, such a shocker could lead Vegas to reconsider its odds formulas.

On Saturday, the Premier League championship trophy finally made its way to King Power Stadium where Leicester City celebrated its title in front of its home fans.  This moment capped a season that will be remembered in world football lore for the rest of time, and looking back at that 5,000-to-1 number, many are arguing that the Foxes are the most unlikely champions in sports history and will likely remain so for years to come.  Might that be because managers and talking heads will now be on the lookout for “the next Leicester City” and be prepared when this happens?  Is it because the obscene amount of money coming in to Premier League clubs from the TV contract is tightening the gap between the haves and the have-nots in the league?  Is it because bookmakers will now want to revise their handicapping methods to guard themselves from another big cashout?

Maybe it’s best that we not try to overthink the greater significance of this title, or compare it to the title chances of another team in another country.  If the Cleveland Browns won next year’s Super Bowl, would it really matter to that fanbase and that organization that bookmakers thought that they were 25 times more likely to win its respective title (and thus, make its title 25 times less significant) than a club in a completely different sport and league structure?  It’s almost as if these comparisons are implicitly saying, “If Leicester did it, what’s the Browns’ excuse?” while completely missing out on the context of each team’s struggle.  And I somewhat feel guilty of contributing to this as well by writing this piece.  Sometimes when we get caught up in all the numbers, we lose sight of some of the other reasons why we watch sports: it’s because there’s a chance we could see somebody achieve an amazing feat on any given day.

Leicester City Football Club achieved something amazing in 2015-16 regardless of context, and their now-elated fans are not particularly concerned with whether their triumph is indicative of anything larger right now.  Maybe we, too, should just sit back and enjoy it for what it is.


Why ‘Analysis’ of the NFL Draft is Full of Nonsense

042313-NFL-Draft-Stage-DG-PI_20130423141057135_730_350

The NFL Draft, the event in which the top college football prospects learn their destinations, got underway yesterday. Before the draft, you had probably already seen several mock drafts from self-proclaimed “draftniks” who thought they know which player would go where, as well as multiple anonymous reports from “sources” about which players’ stock were rising and whose were falling. All of the speculation and buildup to the draft ended, and we have since found out that Jameis Winston will suit up for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the first overall draft pick.

While I will be looking forward to finding out where everyone else goes and which teams draft the best players available and/or those that fit a need, there’s one problem that I’ve had with the draft these days.

It’s the way that the draft is covered and analyzed from so many different angles.

Now I get that most fans would like to know which positions their favorite team needs to focus on in the draft, as well as who the best prospects are at that position.

However, do we really know who those players are at the time of the draft? While we may have had an idea on the can’t-miss talent in the past, such as John Elway, Troy Aikman, and Peyton Manning, I’d have to say no for the majority of players.

And not only do the fans not know, but neither do the so-called experts on TV or in your favorite publication, nor do the front office staff charged with drafting the talent.

One of the biggest annoyances involved with draft coverage is when analysts declare which teams were “winners” and “losers” in the days after the draft ends. How can we possibly know whether a team had a good draft or not if the draftees haven’t even reported to their teams?

Each year, advanced analysis site Football Outsiders aggregates NFL Draft “report cards” from multiple media outlets, including but not limited to ESPN, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, and Yahoo! Sports. Looking back at 2011, the combined average grade of the Seattle Seahawks draft was a 2.03 (on a 4.0 scale), good for last in the league. Clifton Brown of Sporting News gave the Seahawks a D, opining, “Their decision not to pick quarterback Andy Dalton could haunt them, especially if Matt Hasselbeck leaves.” Wes Bunting of National Football Post said that he had “questions about CB Richard Sherman holding up on the outside.” Granted, many of these analysts said that the Seahawks had the best draft in 2010 when they selected Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, and Golden Tate, all of whom served as key players on the Super Bowl-winning team in 2013. The 2011 class didn’t quite have the star power of the previous year, but with the All-Pro Sherman and starters K.J. Wright, Byron Maxwell, James Carpenter and Malcolm Smith, this Seahawks class outperformed many experts’ expectations.

In the same year, the Green Bay Packers had the fourth-highest grade among the same pundits at 3.46, with grades ranging from A to B-. With the Packers having won the Super Bowl the previous year with younger depth players playing key roles down the stretch, it can be easy for analysts to believe that this draft would yield more of the same. But of the ten players drafted, only Randall Cobb and Davon House emerged as starter-caliber players, while first-round pick Derek Sherrod’s career is on the brink after recovering from a severe leg break in his rookie season that cost him nearly two years of playing time and sapped him of much of his effectiveness. The other players either did not make the team, or were merely replaceable filler. Now it’s plausible to say that hindsight is 20/20 and that the Packers couldn’t have known that Sherrod would have broken his leg as badly as he did ahead of time.

But that’s the point. We don’t know. Nobody knows. The people in the media who are paid to know this don’t even know. The NFL Draft is one big yearly educated guess on who will succeed in the NFL and to which extent. The fact that ESPN’s and NFL Network’s coverage of the draft is a major TV event tells you everything you need to know about the league’s hunger for year-round publicity. If anyone really knew, then Ryan Leaf wouldn’t have been taken second overall, and Tim Couch and JaMarcus Russell would not have gone first overall in their respective drafts. When you think about it, it becomes hard to take talking heads like Mel Kiper seriously when he bloviates about Russell having elite potential in a few years.

As for me, I won’t even pretend to know whether anyone had a great draft or not until after I see the players performing.

And after Mr. Irrelevant is chosen Saturday afternoon, you too should take any analyst’s opinion about the draft with a grain of salt, because they probably know just as much about it as you do.


Do Fans Really Like Cinderella More Than College Basketball Powerhouses?

Duke’s victory over Wisconsin in Monday’s national championship game brings down the curtains on one of the most memorable NCAA tournaments in recent memory–a tournament with compelling storylines, riveting matchups, and of course, long-discarded brackets.

There was one thing in particular that stood out to me during this edition of March Madness. The tournament has a reputation of occasionally having unexpected teams make deep runs into the later rounds, and the single-elimination nature of the tournament makes it incredibly appealing to both hardcore and casual fans, even if they haven’t followed a minute of college basketball prior to the month of March.

But this year, while the tournament began with some amazing underdog victories (accompanied by a celebratory fall from a stool), no team that anyone would consider a “Cinderella” made it as far as the sweet 16. Three of the Final Four teams (Kentucky, Duke, Wisconsin) were 1-seeds, and underachieving and thus 7th-seeded Michigan State rounded out a national semifinal round full of blue-bloods and alpha dogs. In fact, underachieving traditional power UCLA, an 11-seed whose selection to the tournament raised a bit of controversy, was the lowest seed to reach the Sweet 16.

Despite the lack of a Cinderella in this year’s tournament, interest in the tournament did not wane as the tournament progressed. As a matter of fact, this was the most-watched tournament since 1993, having shattered cable records for televised college basketball and even surpassing years when the tournament was only available on CBS. A lot of the audience can likely be attributed to Kentucky’s quest for the first undefeated season since 1975-76. Even after Kentucky’s elimination from the tournament, the Wisconsin-Duke national championship game was the most-watched title game since 1997. This is particularly notable given the decline in the popularity of college basketball since the 1990s. Of course, these ratings don’t even account for the tens of millions of viewers watching via the March Madness Live streaming app. One also has to wonder what ratings in recent years would look like if traditional ways of measuring TV viewership were combined with current times, where more people watch streamed content on computers, smartphones, and tablets than ever before.

The problem with the Cinderella story is that, nine times out of ten, when they’ve already captured the attention of the nation, they’ll crash and burn when they meet one of the alpha dogs. For the program itself, it’s good that they have the attention of the country, as well as that of recruits, showing them that they can win games on the big stage. Oftentimes, that’s how mid-major powers like Gonzaga, VCU and Wichita State build themselves. But for the viewer, if the game starts to get lopsided, they’ll tune out. That risk is somewhat lessened when there are two powerhouses duking it out on the biggest of stages.

George Mason captured America’s attention in March of 2006, knocking off North Carolina and Connecticut, the two most recent national champions at the time (although both teams no longer had the key players that led them to those championships), en route to being the lowest seed to ever make the Final Four. In the national semifinal against Florida, the Patriots held tough in the first half, but the Gators pulled away in the second half and went on to win. With no other compelling storyline left in the tournament, viewers largely tuned out of the second game that night, which managed to get worse ratings than the first game, the only time for that to happen in the past decade.

There could be various theories as to why college basketball isn’t as popular as it once was in the 1980s and 90s, including fans’ familiarity with the players, or lack thereof, with the best players looking to turn pro as soon as possible. Just a simple Google search can tell you what many think of the one-and-done rule.  But if the viewership of this tournament says anything, it’s that people still want to see the best of the best square off against each other, no matter how long–or short–the players themselves stay in college.